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Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
POBLACIN
INCREM.
AO
POBLACIN(1)
TASA DE CRECIM.
HABIT
/AO
1 972
1 981
1993
10, 983
3.1
386
2.09
339
4.06
987
4.06(*)
1,367
14 ,456
18, 524
2 007
32, 346
2010
36, 448
FUENTE (1)
: CENSOS NACIONALES 2007 - XI POBLACION Y VI DE VIVIENDA
ELABORACION : EQUIPO TECNICO PDUP- 2022
*tasa de crecimiento asumida para proyectar poblacin 2010
Poblacional
Censos
1900
1920
Habitantes
Tasa de
Crecim.
Fsico
Incremento
Pobl.
Hab/ao
Incremento
Aos
Hasta1900
Hasta 1920
Has
Has/ao
0.74
22.77
0.77
4.26
Densidad
Hab/Ha
3.25
18.05
_
1961
6,252
Hasta 1961
2.8
126.00
49.50
202
3.36
1972
8,474
Hasta 1972
3
1981
1993
1.9
15,319
2010
16,209
1.9(*)
112.00
1.07
Hasta 1993
2.10
102.85
83
11,793
2007
1.82
Hasta 1981
98.00
86.45
333
11,470
6.77
1.04
102.00
115.70
252
3.86
Hasta 2007
169.80
Hasta 2010
188.00
295
3.34
90.00
6.06
3.57
86.00
FUENTE (1)
: CENSOS NACIONALES 2007 - XI POBLACION Y VI DE VIVIENDA
ELABORACION : EQUIPO TECNICO PDUP- 2022 (
*) tasa de crecimiento periodo 93-2007 asumida para proyectar poblacin al 2010
I.
Datos de Poblacin
Poblacin (habitantes)
Provincia/distrito
1972
1981
1993
2007
Ciudad de Pimentel*
8474
11470
11793
15319
Distrito de Pimentel*
10,983
14,456
18,524
32,346
Departamento de Lambayeque
533,266
708,820
920,795
1,112,868
II. Calculo:
ANEXO N 1
CALCULO DE LA POBLACION DE DISEO
CENSOS POBLACION
1,972
8474
1,981
11470
1,993
11793
2,007
15319
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
POBLACION
URBANA
8,474
11,470
11,793
15,319
x T^2
METODO ARITMETICO:
Pf = Po (1 + i * t)
Donde:
Pf
Po
i
t
=
=
=
=
PORC.
3.93%
1.87%
2.31%
0.23%
1.29%
2.14%
1.82%
1.97%
1.97%
1.26%
1.94%
CENSO
TIEMPOS
1972
-5,743
5,319
2,945
14,061
8,399
3,868
5,573
4,762
4,739
8,573
4,891
8,474
-35
1981
-327
7,890
6,127
14,384
10,178
6,813
8,079
7,477
7,459
10,307
7,573
11,470
-26
1993
6,894
11,319
10,369
14,816
12,551
10,739
11,421
11,096
11,087
12,620
11,148
11,793
-14
AOS
2007
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
0
SUMAT.
39,848
34,760
58,580
46,447
36,739
40,392
38,655
38,604
46,819
38,931
47,056
DIFER.
58,580
7,208
12,296
11,524
609
10,317
6,664
8,401
8,452
237
8,125
0.0126
ECUACION:
M. ARITMET:
Pf = 15,319 * ( 1 + 0.0126 * T )
METODO GEOMETRICO
Pf = Po (1 + i ) t
Donde:
Pf
Po
i
t
=
=
=
=
3.42%
1.59%
1.71%
0.23%
1.12%
1.89%
0.73%
1.49%
1.70%
0.72%
1.07%
CENSO
TIEMPOS
1972
4,720
8,831
8,474
14,127
10,377
7,966
11,857
9,124
8,492
11,932
10,551
8,474
-35
1981
6,389
10,175
9,868
14,424
11,470
9,424
12,665
10,424
9,883
12,723
11,613
11,470
-26
1993
9,566
12,290
12,089
14,831
13,109
11,793
13,827
12,451
12,099
13,862
13,196
11,793
-14
AOS
2007
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
0
SUMAT.
35,993
46,614
45,749
58,701
50,275
44,502
53,668
47,318
45,792
53,836
50,679
47,056
DIFER.
11,063
442
1,307
11,645
3,219
2,554
6,612
262
1,264
6,780
3,623
0.0149
ECUACION:
M. GEOMET:
Pf = 15,319 * ( 1 + 0.0149) ^ T
METODO PARABOLICO
Pf = A + B * t + C * t ^ 2
Donde:
Pf
=
A, B, C =
t
=
Y
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
A
8,474
8,474
8,474
11,470
B
464
380
102
-77
Poblacin Final
Poblacin Inicial
Tasa de crecimiento
C
-14.6
-5.3
2.7
8.7
1972
16,927
8,474
8,474
12,863
1981
19,923
11,470
9,607
11,470
1993
20,246
14,134
11,793
11,793
2007
15,319
15,319
15,319
15,319
SUM
72,414
49,397
45,193
51,445
POB. DATO
8,474
11,470
11,793
15,319
47,056
DIFER.
25,358
2,341
1,863
4,389
ECUACION:
M. PARAB.:
POB.
6810
10138
11632
12800
15319
AO
1,967
1,977
1,987
1,997
2,007
POB.
6,810
10,138
11,632
12,800
15,319
DONDE:
M = AOS EN DECADAS
ECUACION:
Pt =
15319
+ M
2127.36
-270.11 *M*(M+1)/2
SELECCIN DE LA CURVA
AO
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
2,006
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
2,014
2,015
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
2,021
2,022
2,023
2,024
2,025
2,026
2,027
2,028
2,029
2,030
2,031
2,032
-35
-26
-14
0
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
15,319
15,126
15,319
15,512
15,705
15,897
16,090
16,283
16,476
16,668
16,861
17,054
17,247
17,439
17,632
17,825
18,018
18,210
18,403
18,596
18,789
18,981
19,174
19,367
19,560
19,752
19,945
20,138
15,319
15,094
15,319
15,548
15,779
16,015
16,254
16,496
16,742
16,992
17,245
17,503
17,764
18,029
18,298
18,571
18,848
19,129
19,414
19,704
19,997
20,296
20,598
20,906
21,218
21,534
21,855
22,181
15,319
15,220
15,319
15,423
15,533
15,648
15,769
15,895
16,026
16,163
16,305
16,452
16,605
16,763
16,926
17,095
17,269
17,448
17,633
17,824
18,019
18,220
18,426
18,638
18,855
19,077
19,305
19,538
15,319
15,118
15,319
15,517
15,712
15,905
16,094
16,281
16,466
16,647
16,826
17,003
17,176
17,347
17,515
17,681
17,844
18,004
18,161
18,316
18,468
18,617
18,763
18,907
19,048
19,187
19,323
19,456
CURVA
PERU
15,319
15,056
15,319
15,587
15,860
16,137
16,420
16,707
17,000
17,297
17,600
17,908
18,221
18,540
18,864
19,195
19,530
19,872
20,220
20,574
20,934
21,300
21,673
22,052
22,438
22,831
23,230
23,637
CENSOS
NACIONALES
8,474
11,470
11,793
15,319
Proyecto: MEJORAMIENTO Y AMPLIACION DE SISTEMAS DE AGUA POTABLE Y ALCANTARILLADO LOCALIDAD DE PIMENTEL, DISTRITO DE PIMENTEL- CHICLAYO
LAMBAYEQUE.
ANEXO N 2
CALCULO DE LA POBLACION DE DISEO
CENSOS POBLACION
1,972
10983
1,981
14456
1,993
18524
2,007
32346
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
POBLACION
URBANA
10,983
14,456
18,524
32,346
x T^2
METODO ARITMETICO:
Pf = Po (1 + i * t)
Donde:
Pf
Po
i
t
=
=
=
=
INTERV. T. CREC.
CON 2
CENSOS
CON 3
CENSOS
CON 4 CENS
r1 =
r2 =
r3 =
r4 =
r5 =
r6 =
r7 =
r8 =
r9 =
r10 =
r11 =
PORC.
3.51%
3.27%
5.56%
2.35%
4.76%
5.33%
2.85%
4.44%
4.09%
3.95%
3.84%
CENSO
TIEMPOS
AOS
1972
-7,431
-4,669
-30,570
5,797
-21,540
-27,993
128
-17,912
-13,998
-12,397
-11,120
10,983
-35
1981
2,798
4,849
-14,392
12,624
-7,684
-12,477
8,413
-4,989
-2,081
-892
57
14,456
-26
1993
16,435
17,540
7,180
21,727
10,792
8,210
19,459
12,243
13,808
14,449
14,960
18,524
-14
2007
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
0
SUMAT.
72,494
60,346
DIFER.
72,494
72,494
72,494
3,815
72,494
72,494
15,963
72,494
72,494
72,494
72,494
0.0235
76,309
ECUACION:
M. ARITMET:
Pf = 32,346 * ( 1 + 0.0235 * T )
METODO GEOMETRICO
Pf = Po (1 + i ) t
Donde:
Pf
Po
i
t
=
=
=
=
INTERV. T. CRECIM.
CON 2
CENSOS
CON 3
CENSOS
CON 4 CENS
r1 =
r2 =
r3 =
r4 =
r5 =
r6 =
r7 =
r8 =
r9 =
r10 =
r11 =
PORC.
3.10%
2.52%
3.13%
2.09%
3.15%
4.06%
2.47%
3.13%
3.05%
2.99%
3.02%
CENSO
TIEMPOS
AOS
1972
11,111
13,535
10,983
15,694
10,939
8,028
13,755
10,983
11,300
11,544
11,432
10,983
-35
1981
14,625
16,934
14,499
18,902
14,456
11,488
17,138
14,500
14,809
15,046
14,938
14,456
-26
1993
21,096
22,829
20,998
24,221
20,964
18,524
22,976
20,998
21,238
21,420
21,338
18,524
-14
2007
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
0
SUMAT.
79,179
85,644
78,826
91,162
78,705
70,386
86,215
78,827
79,693
80,356
80,054
76,309
DIFER.
2,870
9,335
2,517
14,853
2,396
5,923
9,906
2,518
3,384
4,047
3,745
0.0315
ECUACION:
M. GEOMET:
Pf = 32,346 * ( 1 + 0.0315) ^ T
METODO PARABOLICO
Pf = A + B * t + C * t ^ 2
Donde:
Pf
=
A, B, C =
t
=
Y
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
A
10,983
10,983
10,983
14,456
B
406
308
-18
40
Poblacin Final
Poblacin Inicial
Tasa de crecimiento
C
-2.2
8.6
17.9
24.9
1972
20,872
10,983
10,983
16,118
1981
24,345
14,456
12,276
14,456
1993
28,413
21,262
18,524
18,524
2007
32,346
32,346
32,346
32,346
SUM
105,975
79,047
74,129
81,444
POB. DATO
10,983
14,456
18,524
32,346
76,309
DIFER.
29,666
2,738
2,180
5,135
ECUACION:
M. PARAB.:
POB.
9054
12912
16490
22473
32346
AO
1,967
1,977
1,987
1,997
2,007
POB.
9,054
12,912
16,490
22,473
32,346
DONDE:
M = AOS EN DECADAS
ECUACION:
Pt =
32346
+ M
5823.11
2004.66 *M*(M+1)/2
SELECCIN DE LA CURVA
AO
TIEMPO
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
2,006
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
2,014
2,015
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
2,021
2,022
2,023
2,024
2,025
2,026
2,027
2,028
2,029
2,030
2,031
2,032
-35
-26
-14
0
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
ARITMETICO GEOMETRICO
32,346
31,587
32,346
33,105
33,863
34,622
35,380
36,139
36,897
37,656
38,414
39,173
39,931
40,690
41,448
42,207
42,965
43,724
44,482
45,241
46,000
46,758
47,517
48,275
49,034
49,792
50,551
51,309
PARABOLICO INC.VARIABLES
32,346
31,359
32,346
33,364
34,413
35,496
36,613
37,765
38,953
40,178
41,442
42,746
44,091
45,478
46,909
48,385
49,907
51,477
53,096
54,767
56,490
58,267
60,100
61,991
63,941
65,953
68,028
70,168
32,346
32,382
32,346
32,346
32,382
32,454
32,562
32,706
32,885
33,101
33,352
33,639
33,963
34,322
34,717
35,148
35,614
36,117
36,656
37,230
37,841
38,487
39,169
39,887
40,641
41,431
42,257
43,118
32,346
31,673
32,346
33,039
33,751
34,484
35,237
36,009
36,802
37,615
38,448
39,301
40,174
41,067
41,980
42,913
43,866
44,839
45,833
46,846
47,879
48,933
50,006
51,100
52,213
53,347
54,500
55,674
CURVA
PERU
32,346
31,790
32,346
32,912
33,488
34,074
34,670
35,277
35,894
36,523
37,162
37,812
38,474
39,147
39,832
40,529
41,238
41,960
42,694
43,442
44,202
44,975
45,762
46,563
47,378
48,207
49,051
49,909
CENSOS
NACIONALE
S
10,983
14,456
18,524
32,346
Proyecto: MEJORAMIENTO Y AMPLIACION DE SISTEMAS DE AGUA POTABLE Y ALCANTARILLADO LOCALIDAD DE PIMENTEL, DISTRITO DE PIMENTEL- CHICLAYO
LAMBAYEQUE.
10
METODO GEOMETRICO
Pf = Po (1 + i )
Donde:
Pf
Po
i
t
=
=
=
=
INTERV. T. CRECIM.PORC.
r1 =
r2 =
CON 2
r3 =
CENSOS
r4 =
r5 =
r6 =
r7 =
CON 3
r8 =
CENSOS
r9 =
r10 =
CON 4 CENS r11 =
3.21%
2.64%
2.12%
2.20%
1.75%
1.36%
2.59%
2.05%
2.02%
1.70%
2.00%
CENSO
TIEMPOS
1972
367,966
447,794
533,266
518,838
606,348
693,014
454,681
547,761
551,898
616,637
555,830
533,266
-35
1981
489,103
565,905
644,319
631,323
708,820
782,774
572,358
657,284
660,968
717,736
664,463
708,820
-26
1993
714,808
773,210
829,170
820,123
872,881
920,795
777,945
838,113
840,639
878,776
843,030
920,795
-14
AOS
2007
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
1,112,868
0
SUMAT.
2,684,745
2,899,778
3,119,623
3,083,152
3,300,916
3,509,451
2,917,852
3,156,025
3,166,373
3,326,017
3,176,190
3,275,749
DIFER.
591,004
375,971
156,126
192,597
25,167
233,702
357,897
119,724
109,376
50,268
99,559
0.0175
ECUACION:
M. GEOMET:
Pf = 1,112,868 * ( 1 + 0.0175) ^ T
15319 habitantes
N viviendas (2007) :
6,758 viviendas
Densidad
2.27 habitantes/vivienda
Tasa
3.15%
Ecuacin elegida
15,319 (1 + 3.15%)^n
11
INEI
0
2007
15319
2008
15802
2009
16299
2010
16813
2011
17342
2012
17889
2013
18452
2014
19033
2015
19633
2016
20251
10
2017
20889
11
2018
21547
12
2019
22226
13
2020
22926
14
2021
23648
15
2022
24393
16
2023
25162
17
2024
25954
18
2025
26772
19
2026
27615
20
2027
28485
21
2028
29382
22
2029
30308
23
2030
31262
24
2031
32247
25
2032
33263
12