MES

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

DEMANDA REAL PRONOSTICO

DESVIACIN (Et)
468
427
437
460
444.00
16.00
433
441.33
-8.33
438
443.33
-5.33
414
443.67
-29.67
455
428.33
26.67
474
435.67
38.33
477
447.67
29.33
462
468.67
-6.67
457
471.00
-14.00
408
465.33
-57.33
451
442.33
8.67
431
438.67
-7.67
410
430.00
-20.00
405
430.67
-25.67
401
415.33
-14.33
490
405.33
84.67
415
432.00
-17.00
455
435.33
19.67
474
453.33
20.67
453
448.00
5.00
429
460.67
-31.67
452.00

SCEP

16.00
7.67
2.33
-27.33
-0.67
37.67
67.00
60.33
46.33
-11.00
-2.33
-10.00
-30.00
-55.67
-70.00
14.67
-2.33
17.33
38.00
43.00
11.33

500
490
480
470
460

450
440
430
420
410

400
0

DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

16.00
8.33
5.33
29.67
26.67
38.33
29.33
6.67
14.00
57.33
8.67
7.67
20.00
25.67
14.33
84.67
17.00
19.67
20.67
5.00
31.67

DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

DMA

16.00
24.33
29.67
59.33
86.00
124.33
153.67
160.33
174.33
231.67
240.33
248.00
268.00
293.67
308.00
392.67
409.67
429.33
450.00
455.00
486.67

ST

16.00
12.17
9.89
14.83
17.20
20.72
21.95
20.04
19.37
23.17
21.85
20.67
20.62
20.98
20.53
24.54
24.10
23.85
23.68
22.75
23.17

PMS (3)
DEMANDA REAL
PRONOSTICO

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

1.00
0.63
0.24
-1.84
-0.04
1.82
3.05
3.01
2.39
-0.47
-0.11
-0.48
-1.46
-2.65
-3.41
0.60
-0.10
0.73
1.60
1.89
0.49

DMAP
IAt-FtI/At *100

3.48
1.92
1.22
7.17
5.86
8.09
6.15
1.44
3.06
14.05
1.92
1.78
4.88
6.34
3.57
17.28
4.10
4.32
4.36
1.10
7.38

IAt-FtI/At *100

3.48
5.40
6.62
13.79
19.65
27.73
33.88
35.33
38.39
52.44
54.36
56.14
61.02
67.36
70.93
88.21
92.31
96.63
100.99
102.09
109.48

IAt-FtI/At *100/n

3.48
2.70
2.21
3.45
3.93
4.62
4.84
4.42
4.27
5.24
4.94
4.68
4.69
4.81
4.73
5.51
5.43
5.37
5.32
5.10
5.21

MES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

DEMANDA REAL PRONOSTICO

DESVIACIN (Et)
468
427
437
460
433
438
445.00
-7.00
419
439.00
-20.00
455
437.40
17.60
474
441.00
33.00
477
443.80
33.20
462
452.60
9.40
457
457.40
-0.40
408
465.00
-57.00
451
455.60
-4.60
431
451.00
-20.00
410
441.80
-31.80
405
431.40
-26.40
401
421.00
-20.00
490
419.60
70.40
415
427.40
-12.40
455
424.20
30.80
474
433.20
40.80
453
447.00
6.00
429
457.40
-28.40
445.20

SCEP

-7.00
-27.00
-9.40
23.60
56.80
66.20
65.80
8.80
4.20
-15.80
-47.60
-74.00
-94.00
-23.60
-36.00
-5.20
35.60
41.60
13.20

500
490
480
470

460
450
440
430
420
410

400
0

DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

7.00
20.00
17.60
33.00
33.20
9.40
0.40
57.00
4.60
20.00
31.80
26.40
20.00
70.40
12.40
30.80
40.80
6.00
28.40

7.00
27.00
44.60
77.60
110.80
120.20
120.60
177.60
182.20
202.20
234.00
260.40
280.40
350.80
363.20
394.00
434.80
440.80
469.20

DMA

ST

7.00
13.50
14.87
19.40
22.16
20.03
17.23
22.20
20.24
20.22
21.27
21.70
21.57
25.06
24.21
24.63
25.58
24.49
24.69

-1.00
-2.00
-0.63
1.22
2.56
3.30
3.82
0.40
0.21
-0.78
-2.24
-3.41
-4.36
-0.94
-1.49
-0.21
1.39
1.70
0.53

PMS (5)
DEMANDA REAL
PRONOSTICO

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

DMAP
IAt-FtI/At *100

1.60
4.77
3.87
6.96
6.96
2.03
0.09
13.97
1.02
4.64
7.76
6.52
4.99
14.37
2.99
6.77
8.61
1.32
6.62

IAt-FtI/At *100

1.60
6.37
10.24
17.20
24.16
26.20
26.28
40.25
41.27
45.91
53.67
60.19
65.18
79.54
82.53
89.30
97.91
99.23
105.85

IAt-FtI/At *100/n

1.60
3.19
3.41
4.30
4.83
4.37
3.75
5.03
4.59
4.59
4.88
5.02
5.01
5.68
5.50
5.58
5.76
5.51
5.57

MES DEMANDA REAL PROM. MOV.POND. DESVIACIN

1
468
2
427
3
437
4
460
437.10
22.90
5
433
449.80
-16.80
6
438
441.50
-3.50
7
414
438.70
-24.70
8
455
423.10
31.90
9
474
441.00
33.00
10
477
462.30
14.70
11
462
473.90
-11.90
12
457
467.70
-10.70
13
408
460.50
-52.50
14
451
428.10
22.90
15
431
438.70
-7.70
16
410
434.70
-24.70
17
405
420.40
-15.40
18
401
409.10
-8.10
19
490
403.10
86.90
20
415
454.80
-39.80
21
455
436.10
18.90
22
474
446.50
27.50
23
453
462.40
-9.40
24
429
459.50
-30.50
25
440.70

SCEP

22.90
6.10
2.60
-22.10
9.80
42.80
57.50
45.60
34.90
-17.60
5.30
-2.40
-27.10
-42.50
-50.60
36.30
-3.50
15.40
42.90
33.50
3.00

DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

22.90
16.80
3.50
24.70
31.90
33.00
14.70
11.90
10.70
52.50
22.90
7.70
24.70
15.40
8.10
86.90
39.80
18.90
27.50
9.40
30.50

500

PESO
W1
W2
W3

0.6
0.3
0.1

490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
410

410
400

DMAP
DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

DMA

ST

IAt-FtI/At *100

RELACION

22.90
39.70
43.20
67.90
99.80
132.80
147.50
159.40
170.10
222.60
245.50
253.20
277.90
293.30
301.40
388.30
428.10
447.00
474.50
483.90
514.40

500
490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
410

22.90
19.85
14.40
16.98
19.96
22.13
21.07
19.93
18.90
22.26
22.32
21.10
21.38
20.95
20.09
24.27
25.18
24.83
24.97
24.20
24.50

1.00
0.31
0.18
-1.30
0.49
1.93
2.73
2.29
1.85
-0.79
0.24
-0.11
-1.27
-2.03
-2.52
1.50
-0.14
0.62
1.72
1.38
0.12

4.98
3.88
0.80
5.97
7.01
6.96
3.08
2.58
2.34
12.87
5.08
1.79
6.02
3.80
2.02
17.73
9.59
4.15
5.80
2.08
7.11

IAt-FtI/At *100

SUMATORIA

4.98
8.86
9.66
15.62
22.63
29.60
32.68
35.25
37.60
50.46
55.54
57.33
63.35
67.15
69.17
86.91
96.50
100.65
106.45
108.53
115.64

IAt-FtI/At *100/n

DMAP

4.98
4.43
3.22
3.91
4.53
4.93
4.67
4.41
4.18
5.05
5.05
4.78
4.87
4.80
4.61
5.43
5.68
5.59
5.60
5.43
5.51

PMP
DEMANDA REAL
PRONOSTICO

410
400
0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

DEMANDA REAL
PRONOSTICO

23 24 25 26 27

MES DEMANDA REAL PROM. MOV.POND. DESVIACIN SCEP DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

1
468
2
427
3
437
4
460
5
433
6
438
442.43
-4.43
-4.43
4.43
7
414
439.05
-25.05 -29.48
25.05
8
455
430.21
24.79
-4.69
24.79
9
474
439.96
34.04
29.35
34.04
10
477
452.65
24.35
53.70
24.35
11
462
462.27
-0.27
53.43
0.27
12
457
462.87
-5.87
47.56
5.87
13
408
463.13
-55.13
-7.57
55.13
14
451
441.91
9.09
1.52
9.09
15
431
444.55
-13.55 -12.03
13.55
16
410
438.15
-28.15 -40.18
28.15
17
405
424.92
-19.92 -60.10
19.92
18
401
415.91
-14.91 -75.01
14.91
19
490
410.95
79.05
4.04
79.05
20
415
440.68
-25.68 -21.64
25.68
21
455
430.05
24.95
3.31
24.95
22
474
439.77
34.23
37.54
34.23
23
453
456.48
-3.48
34.06
3.48
24
429
456.95
-27.95
6.11
27.95
25
443.75
500

PESO
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5

0.4
0.25
0.15
0.12
0.08

490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
410

410
400

DMAP
DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

4.43
29.48
54.27
88.31
112.66
112.93
118.80
173.93
183.02
196.57
224.72
244.64
259.55
338.60
364.28
389.23
423.46
426.94
454.89

500
490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
410

DMA

4.43
14.74
18.09
22.08
22.53
18.82
16.97
21.74
20.34
19.66
20.43
20.39
19.97
24.19
24.29
24.33
24.91
23.72
23.94

ST

-1.00
-2.00
-0.26
1.33
2.38
2.84
2.80
-0.35
0.07
-0.61
-1.97
-2.95
-3.76
0.17
-0.89
0.14
1.51
1.44
0.26

IAt-FtI/At *100

1.01
6.05
5.45
7.18
5.10
0.06
1.28
13.51
2.02
3.14
6.87
4.92
3.72
16.13
6.19
5.48
7.22
0.77
6.52

IAt-FtI/At *100

1.01
7.06
12.51
19.69
24.80
24.86
26.14
39.65
41.67
44.81
51.68
56.60
60.31
76.45
82.63
88.12
95.34
96.11
102.62

IAt-FtI/At *100/n

1.01
3.53
4.17
4.92
4.96
4.14
3.73
4.96
4.63
4.48
4.70
4.72
4.64
5.46
5.51
5.51
5.61
5.34
5.40

PMP
DEMANDA REAL
PRONOSTICO

410
400
0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

DEMANDA REAL
PRONOSTICO

23 24 25 26 27

MES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

DEMANDA REAL
468
427
437
460
433
438
414
455
474
477
462
457
408
451
431
410
405
401
490
415
455
474
453
429

SES
DESVIACIN
444.00
456.00
-29.00
441.50
-4.50
439.25
20.75
449.63
-16.63
441.31
-3.31
439.66
-25.66
426.83
28.17
440.91
33.09
457.46
19.54
467.23
-5.23
464.61
-7.61
460.81
-52.81
434.40
16.60
442.70
-11.70
436.85
-26.85
423.43
-18.43
414.21
-13.21
407.61
82.39
448.80
-33.80
431.90
23.10
443.45
30.55
458.73
-5.73
455.86
-26.86
442.43

SCEP

DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

-29.00
-33.50
-12.75
-29.38
-32.69
-58.34
-30.17
2.91
22.46
17.23
9.61
-43.19
-26.60
-38.30
-65.15
-83.57
-96.79
-14.39
-48.20
-25.10
5.45
-0.27
-27.14

29.00
4.50
20.75
16.63
3.31
25.66
28.17
33.09
19.54
5.23
7.61
52.81
16.60
11.70
26.85
18.43
13.21
82.39
33.80
23.10
30.55
5.73
26.86

500

ALFA

0.5

490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
410

410
400
0

DMAP
DESVIA. ABSOLUTA
29.00
33.50
54.25
70.88
74.19
99.84
128.02
161.10
180.64
185.87
193.49
246.29
262.89
274.59
301.44
319.87
333.08
415.48
449.28
472.38
502.93
508.65
535.51

DMA
29.00
16.75
18.08
17.72
14.84
16.64
18.29
20.14
20.07
18.59
17.59
20.52
20.22
19.61
20.10
19.99
19.59
23.08
23.65
23.62
23.95
23.12
23.28

ST
-1.00
-2.00
-0.71
-1.66
-2.20
-3.51
-1.65
0.14
1.12
0.93
0.55
-2.10
-1.32
-1.95
-3.24
-4.18
-4.94
-0.62
-2.04
-1.06
0.23
-0.01
-1.17

IAt-FtI/At *100

6.79
1.03
4.51
3.84
0.76
6.20
6.19
6.98
4.10
1.13
1.67
12.94
3.68
2.72
6.55
4.55
3.29
16.82
8.15
5.08
6.44
1.26
6.26

IAt-FtI/At
*100

IAt-FtI/At
*100/n

6.79
7.82
12.33
16.17
16.93
23.13
29.32
36.30
40.39
41.53
43.19
56.13
59.81
62.53
69.08
73.63
76.92
93.74
101.88
106.96
113.41
114.67
120.93

SES
DEMANDA REAL
PRONOSTICO

6.79
3.91
4.11
4.04
3.39
3.85
4.19
4.54
4.49
4.15
3.93
4.68
4.60
4.47
4.61
4.60
4.52
5.21
5.36
5.35
5.40
5.21
5.26

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

MES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

ALFA
DELTA

DEMANDA REAL PRONOSTICO

468
444.00
427
454.67
437
443.50
460
437.97
433
446.41
438
441.21
414
438.65
455
425.17
474
435.58
477
456.11
462
473.24
457
475.44
408
470.00
451
438.88
431
435.56
410
428.53
405
415.26
401
404.54
490
397.32
415
439.32
455
438.02
474
450.46
453
467.55
429
467.52
451.16

0.5
0.6

0.5
0.4

TENDENCIA
-2.67
5.33
-4.57
-5.15
3.01
-1.92
-2.31
-9.01
2.64
13.38
15.63
7.57
-0.23
-18.76
-9.50
-8.02
-11.17
-10.90
-8.69
21.72
7.91
10.63
14.50
5.79
-7.51

FIT
441.33
460.00
438.93
432.82
449.42
439.29
436.34
416.16
438.23
469.49
488.87
483.00
469.77
420.12
426.06
420.51
404.08
393.65
388.63
461.04
445.93
461.09
482.05
473.31
443.65

495
485
475
465
455
445
435
425
415
405
395

395
385
0

DESVIACIN
-33.00
-1.93
27.18
-16.42
-1.29
-22.34
38.84
35.77
7.51
-26.87
-26.00
-61.77
30.88
4.94
-10.51
0.92
7.35
101.37
-46.04
9.07
12.91
-29.05
-44.31

SCEP

DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

-33.00
-34.93
-7.75
-24.17
-25.46
-47.80
-8.96
26.81
34.32
7.45
-18.56
-80.33
-49.45
-44.51
-55.02
-54.10
-46.75
54.62
8.59
17.66
30.56
1.51
-42.80

33.00
1.93
27.18
16.42
1.29
22.34
38.84
35.77
7.51
26.87
26.00
61.77
30.88
4.94
10.51
0.92
7.35
101.37
46.04
9.07
12.91
29.05
44.31

SEST

DESVIA. ABSOLUTA

DMA

33.00
34.93
62.11
78.53
79.82
102.16
141.00
176.77
184.28
211.16
237.16
298.93
329.81
334.75
345.26
346.18
353.53
454.90
500.94
510.01
522.92
551.97
596.28

DEMANDA REAL
FIT

33.00
17.47
20.70
19.63
15.96
17.03
20.14
22.10
20.48
21.12
21.56
24.91
25.37
23.91
23.02
21.64
20.80
25.27
26.37
25.50
24.90
25.09
25.93

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

DMAP
ST

IAt-FtI/At *100

-1.00
-2.00
-0.37
-1.23
-1.59
-2.81
-0.45
1.21
1.68
0.35
-0.86
-3.22
-1.95
-1.86
-2.39
-2.50
-2.25
2.16
0.33
0.69
1.23
0.06
-1.65

7.73
0.44
5.91
3.79
0.29
5.40
8.54
7.55
1.57
5.82
5.69
15.14
6.85
1.15
2.56
0.23
1.83
20.69
11.09
1.99
2.72
6.41
10.33

IAt-FtI/At *100

7.73
8.17
14.08
17.87
18.17
23.56
32.10
39.64
41.22
47.04
52.73
67.87
74.71
75.86
78.42
78.65
80.48
101.17
112.26
114.26
116.98
123.39
133.72

IAt-FtI/At *100/n

7.73
4.09
4.69
4.47
3.63
3.93
4.59
4.96
4.58
4.70
4.79
5.66
5.75
5.42
5.23
4.92
4.73
5.62
5.91
5.71
5.57
5.61
5.81

METODO
1
2
3
4
5
6

PMS (3)
PMS (5)
PMP_1
PMP_2
SES
SEST

DMA-MAD
23.17
24.69
24.50
23.94
23.28
25.93

DMAP-MAPE SCEP-CFE
5.21
5.57
5.51
5.40
5.26
5.81

11.33
13.20
3.00
6.11
-27.14
-42.80

ST

26.50

0.49
0.53
0.12
0.26
-1.17
-1.65

26.00
25.50
25.00
24.50
24.00
23.50
23.00
0

5.90

El promedio movil ponderado con un periodo, refleja un

mejor comportamiento en la seal de rastreo, sus datos
por lo tanto son mas confiables con respecto a los otros
modelos de pronstico, podemos observar tambien que
el sesgo de el promedio movil ponderado es el menor
de todos los modelos de pronstico, en conclusi
afirmamos que es acertada la utilizacin de este modelo
de pronostico para determinar la demanda futura de la
empresa.

5.80
5.70
5.60
5.50
5.40
5.30
5.20
5.10
0

DMA-MAD
26.50

20.00

26.00

10.00

25.50

0.00

25.00

-10.00
DMA-MAD

24.50

-20.00

24.00
-30.00

23.50

-40.00

23.00
0

-50.00

DMAP - MAPE
5.90

1.00

5.80
0.50

5.70
5.60

0.00

5.50

DMAP-MAPE

5.40
5.30

0
-0.50
-1.00

5.20
-1.50

5.10
0

-2.00

SCEP - DFE

6
SCEP-CFE

ST

6
ST