MODELO DE WINTERS TRIMESTRAL

t
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0

D
27
82
50
51
44
80
61
57

PM

PMC

IE

52.500
56.750
56.250
59.000
60.500

54.625
56.500
57.625
59.750

0.915
0.903
0.764
1.339

IE=
fc=

3.921
1.020

IEprm
0.764
1.339
0.915
0.903
0.764
1.339
0.915
0.903
IEaj=

Parmetros iniciales:
a= 65.471
b=
2.778
IE1=
0.779
IE2=
1.366
IE3=
0.933
IE4=
0.921

1
2
3
4

1
2
3
4

IEaj
0.779
1.366
0.933
0.921
0.779
1.366
0.933
0.921
3.999

DD
34.660
60.029
53.591
55.375
56.483
58.565
65.380
61.889

Clculo de a y b:
t=
-28
DD= 445.972
t*DD= -1444.208
t^2=
140
n=
8
a= 65.471
b=
2.778

Pronsticos iniciales:
F1/0= 53.166
F2/0= 97.023
F3/0= 68.860
F4/0= 70.533

Coeficientes de suavizacin:
= 0.15
= 0.10

Al final del periodo 1:

D1=
63
a1= 70.143
b1=
2.967
IE1n=
0.785
IE=
4.005
fc=
0.999
IEnorm1=
0.784
IEnorm2=
1.365
IEnorm3=
0.932
IEnorm4=
0.920
F2/1= 99.795
F3/1= 70.904
F4/1= 72.720
F5/1= 64.297

1
2
3
4

Errores promedio al cabo de un ao:

t
F
D
e
|e|
1
53.166
63 -9.834
9.834
2
99.795
120 -20.205 20.205
3
72.944
85 -12.056 12.056
4
76.807
73
3.807
3.807
-38.288 45.902
BIAS
-9.572

MAD
11.476

BIAS% MAD%
-10.40% 13.00%

Al final del periodo 2:

D2=
120
a2= 75.330
b2=
3.189
IE2n=
1.376
IE=
4.012
fc=
0.997
IEnorm1=
0.782
IEnorm2=
1.372
IEnorm3=
0.929
IEnorm4=
0.917
F3/2= 72.944
F4/2= 74.926
F5/2= 66.389
F6/2= 120.854

e^2
96.708
408.242
145.347
14.493
664.790
MSE
166.198

e/D
-0.156
-0.168
-0.142
0.052
-0.414

F
35.853
66.665
48.125
50.065
44.510
81.844
58.493
60.299

|e|
e^2
8.853 78.376
15.335 235.162
1.875
3.516
0.935
0.874
0.510
0.260
1.844
3.400
2.507
6.285
3.299 10.883
35.158 338.756

Errores promedio iniciales:

BIAS
MAD
MSE
-0.768
4.395 42.345

t*DD
-242.620
-360.174
-267.955
-221.500
-169.449
-117.130
-65.380
0.000

t^2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0

BIAS%
1.70%

MAD%
8.80%

65.471
2.778

= 0.05

1
2
3
4

|e|/D
0.156
0.168
0.142
0.052
0.518

e
8.853
-15.335
-1.875
-0.935
0.510
1.844
-2.507
3.299
-6.146

Al final del periodo 3:

D3=
85
a3= 80.466
b3=
3.384
IE3n=
0.935
IE=
4.006
fc=
0.999
IEnorm1=
0.781
IEnorm2=
1.371
IEnorm3=
0.934
IEnorm4=
0.916
F4/3= 76.807
F5/3= 68.130
F6/3= 124.237
F7/3= 87.798

1
2
3
4

Al final del periodo 4:

D4=
73
a4= 83.227
b4=
3.322
IE4n=
0.914
IE=
4.000
fc=
1.000
IEnorm1=
0.781
IEnorm2=
1.371
IEnorm3=
0.934
IEnorm4=
0.914
F5/4= 67.595
F6/4= 123.213
F7/4= 87.042
F8/4= 88.215

140
120
100
80
60
40

Demanda rea

20

Pronstico

0
-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

MODELO DE WINTERS CUATRIMESTRAL

t
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Dprm

D
30
60
40
35
70
50
45
75
70
52.778

PM

PMC

IE

43.333
45.000
48.333
51.667
55.000
56.667
63.333

43.333
45.000
48.333
51.667
55.000
56.667
63.333

1.385
0.889
0.724
1.355
0.909
0.794
1.184

IE=
fc=

2.966
1.011

IEprm
0.759
1.308
0.899
0.759
1.308
0.899
0.759
1.308
0.899
IEaj=

Parmetros iniciales:
a= 67.677
b=
3.739
IE1=
0.767
IE2=
1.322
IE3=
0.909

1
2
3

Pronsticos iniciales:
F1/0= 54.776
F2/0= 99.355
F3/0= 71.715

IEaj
0.767
1.322
0.909
0.767
1.322
0.909
0.767
1.322
0.909
2.998

DD
39.113
45.386
44.004
45.632
52.950
55.006
58.670
56.732
77.008

Clculo de a y b:
t=
-36
DD= 474.501
t*DD= -1673.680
t^2=
204
n=
9
a= 67.677
b=
3.739

F
28.966
54.868
41.126
37.569
69.697
51.322
46.173
84.526
61.518

e
-1.034
-5.132
1.126
2.569
-0.303
1.322
1.173
9.526
-8.482
0.765

|e|
1.034
5.132
1.126
2.569
0.303
1.322
1.173
9.526
8.482
30.667

Errores promedio iniciales:

BIAS
MAD
0.085
3.407
BIAS%
0.40%

MAD%
5.80%

67.677
3.739

F Rnd
55
100
72

Coeficientes de suavizacin:
= 0.15
= 0.10
= 0.05
Al final del periodo 1:
D1=
63
a1= 73.024
b1=
3.900
IE1n=
0.772
IE=
3.003
fc=
0.999
IEnorm1=
0.771
IEnorm2=
1.321
IEnorm3=
0.908
1
F2/1= 101.617
2
F3/1= 73.388
3
F4/1= 65.322
Errores promedio al cabo de
t
F
D
1
54.776
63
2
101.617
80
3
75.224
85

Al final del periodo 2:

D2=
120
a2= 79.011
b2=
4.109
IE2n=
1.331
IE=
3.010
fc=
0.997
IEnorm1=
0.769
IEnorm2=
1.327
IEnorm3=
0.905
1
F3/2= 75.224
2
F4/2= 67.079
3
F5/2= 70.239
un ao:
e
-8.224
21.617
-9.776
3.617

|e|
8.224
21.617
9.776
39.617

e^2
67.634
467.295
95.570
630.499

e/D
-0.131
0.270
-0.115
0.025

Al final del periodo 3:

D3=
85
a3= 84.740
b3=
4.271
IE3n=
0.910
IE=
3.006
fc=
0.998
IEnorm1=
0.767
IEnorm2=
1.324
IEnorm3=
0.908
1
F4/3= 68.271
2
F5/3= 123.505
3
F6/3= 88.578

|e|/D
0.131
0.270
0.115
0.516

120
100
80
60

60
BIAS
1.206

MAD
13.206

MSE
210.166

40
20

BIAS% MAD%
0.80% 17.20%

0
-8

-7

-6

-5

e^2
1.069
26.337
1.268
6.600
0.092
1.748
1.376
90.745
71.944
201.179

omedio iniciales:
MSE
22.353

t*DD
-312.904
-317.702
-264.024
-228.160
-211.800
-165.018
-117.340
-56.732
0.000

t^2
64
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0

e/D
-0.034
-0.086
0.028
0.073
-0.004
0.026
0.026
0.127
-0.121
0.035

|e|/D
0.034
0.086
0.028
0.073
0.004
0.026
0.026
0.127
0.121
0.525

Demanda real
Pronstico
-5

-4

-3

-2

-1