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APPRAISAL TECHNIQUES
Simon M Keane
CONTENTS
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Underinvestment bias in conventional capital budgeting techniques
3.3 Wealth creation versus wealth accretion
3.4 Nonrationing versus Rationing
3.5 Does the NPV method need support?
3.5.1 Payback
3.5.2 Internal Rate of Return
3.5.3 The significance of Scale
3.6 Investment fallacies
3.6.1 The positive-NPV fallacy
3.6.2 The reinvestment fallacy
3.6.3 Investment efficiency fallacy.
3.7 Does IRR have any role?
3.7.1 Can IRR ever serve as an alternative to NPV in ranking projects?
3.7.2 Can IRR serve as a supplement to NPV?
3.7.3 Is IRR equal to NPV as an accept-or- reject criterion?
3.7.4 Is IRR useful in rationing conditions?
3.7.5 Is IRR a useful aid to nonfinancial managers?
3.7.6 Can IRR serve even as a preliminary screening method?
3.7.7 Is IRR not a better link to the rate of return in subsequent financial reporting?
3.8 Why is the yield approach acceptable in the securities market but not in the
product market?
3.9 Conclusion
3.10 Summary
Tutorial questions
Problems
Suggested further reading
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Most Finance text books agree that the Net Present Value (NPV)
method is the optimal investment selection criterion, but they also tend to
suggest that the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) has a significant role to play,
and to a lesser extent the Profitability Index (PI) and even Payback (PB).
The argument is often made that investment decisions are too important to
be left to a single method of appraisal. Decision-makers need to see the
problem from more than one, and possibly several, perspectives. This multi-
criteria approach to capital budgeting is widely reflected in practice, in that
most large companies use several methods to make investment decisions,
except that IRR tends often to be preferred over NPV as the appropriate
Discounted Cash Flow method. The purpose of this chapter is to review
this multi-criteria approach and to show that:
In this chapter we will show why the case against IRR cannot validly be
made on the basis of either of these arguments and is flawed for a more
fundamental reason than either.
The generally held view is that IRR is inferior to NPV but useful for
comparing projects unless the projects a) have unequal lives b) have unequal
outlays or c) have significantly different cash flow patterns. In effect, this
view states that, to be confident that IRR is valid in comparing two or more
projects, the projects must be virtually identical. If they are not identical
there is no way of being sure that IRR gives the correct ranking without
reference to the projects’ NPVs.
In summary, the fact that all capital projects are different in scale
implies that an absolute measure of added value is the only relevant
criterion of project worth. IRR as a ratio is fundamentally unsuited for
comparing competing projects. In effect, provided a project's return meets
the minimum required rate for the risk class, the project’s degree of
"profitability" is irrelevant, only its contribution to value.
For example, consider the projects in Table 5. The basic NPV rule
favours D2 over D1 and D3, but there is a risk that the tendency to attach
significance to investment efficiency might lead some decision-makers to
prefer D1. D2, of course, is preferable, both because of its higher NPV
and its greater scale. But D3 is preferable to both because it is the most
consistent with the MAX VtMAX Pt and MAX PVtMAX NPVt rules
established in the objectives chapter. Most decision-makers versed in
conventional capital budgeting criteria would probably favour D2 over D3,
but D3 puts to use £500M of capital and still satisfies the market criterion.
In effect we are conditioned to perceiving an “efficient” return per pound
invested as important, but the efficiency of a project is in fact irrelevant
provided it meets the MAX PVtMAX NPVt criterion.3
3.7 DOES IRR HAVE ANY ROLE?
It is now possible to consider whether IRR has any valid role in capital
budgeting. The focus is on IRR rather than the alternative competitors for
NPV because it is the most popular DCF method in practice and the measure
with the best claim to provide to have a valid status. The arguments that
follow, of course, apply even more forcefully to Payback.
INCREMENTAL APPROACH
Textbooks often suggest that the scale problem of IRR can be partially
overcome by using an incremental approach where the cash flows of smaller
project are subtracted from those of a larger project so that the incremental
cash flows can be evaluated as a simple accept-or-reject decision.
It has already been noted that the argument that IRR has an advantage
in apparently not requiring a precise estimate of the cost of capital is
specious because, although it is calculable without reference to the cost of
capital, it cannot be used effectively without it. More persuasive,
perhaps, is the argument that because IRR indicates the maximum cost of
capital a project can bear, the IRR-k spread indicates the degree of tolerance
of the NPV to errors in estimating the cost of capital. This argument raises
three questions: a) is cost-of-capital risk relevant to project worth, b) if so,
is IRR-k spread the best indicator of it, and c) should the indicator be
factored into the calculation of NPV, or should it be treated as an addendum
to NPV?
A project may be viewed as having two types of risk, cash flow risk
and cost-of-capital risk, but standard NPV calculations may typically
reflect only the former. The possibility that the latter may also be
relevant, however, depends presumably on whether the risk can be shown
to be systematic. But, even if it is systematic, it is not clear that the IRR-k
spread is the best indicator of the effects of estimation errors. Every
project's NPV has unique sensitivity to changes in k, depending on the
configuration of the cash flows, and a more useful indicator is likely to
be achieved by sensitivity analysis of the respective NPVs under different
assumptions about k.
If the assumption is that IRR-k should not be factored into NPV but
presented as a separate statistic this raises the question why cost-of-capital
uncertainty should have such a unique role in the investment decision
process, given that the integrity of NPV is undermined when any relevant
aspect of risk is omitted from the calculation.4 It would be difficult to
claim that it is too problematic for the financial manager to incorporate
cost-of-capital risk into the calculation of NPV since the task would be
even greater for the decision-maker, who now is left with the task of
modifying the unadjusted NPV to capture the implications of the IRR-k
spread. The decision to omit any factor relevant to a project's incremental
value and then to present this factor as a rider to NPV not only imposes a
significant burden on the decision-maker but accords to that factor a
definitive role in the decision process. Even if IRR is intended by the
financial manager to be treated only as an addendum to NPV and not as a
full investment method, it would be unrealistic to assume that the
significance of this distinction would be recognised in practice without the
risk of provoking the dysfunctional effects associated with a multi-criteria
approach. It is perfectly legitimate to consider the sensitivity of NPV to
variations in the cost of capital, but NPV remains the only valid measure
of the project's incremental value. Presenting a range of NPVs may create
its own problems for the decision-maker but at least it remains consistent
with the single criterion ideal.
For example, if, having accepted a project with the cash flows equal
to B2 in Table 2, the firm found subsequently that it could alter the timing of
these flows to replicate those of project B1, then clearly this would be
advantageous, despite a lowering of the IRR. The firm would be
disinclined to make this change, however, if it perceived IRR as a measure
of desirability.
In summary, the excess of a project's IRR over the cost of capital
indicates that the project has a positive NPV, but does not reflect the
project's degree of desirability. IRR is misleading even for accept-or-
reject decisions because it promotes the short-term perspective implicit in
the IRR method, and may lead to a subsequent mismanagement of the
project.
If you were to ask the average finance student to define NPV the
answer would be something like “If the investment outlay is deducted from
the discounted present value of the project’s future cash flows the difference
represents the net present value which, if positive, indicates that the project
is acceptable.” In effect, the natural tendency is to define the concept by
describing the method of its computation. This has become the practice in
textbooks and may make sense for examination purposes but it is of doubtful
help to the nonfinancial manager unfamiliar with the concept of discounting
cash flows. If we are going to make NPV more accessible to the general
user we must learn to define the method in terms of its significance rather
than of its method of computation. The fact that a project is expected to add
£5M to the value of the firm has more significance to the decision-maker
than how the measure has been derived. Indeed the very name net present
value suffers from the criticism that it focuses on the measurement process
rather than on the significance of the measure. If we denoted the measure
“Added Value” or “Incremental Wealth” it would become clearer to the
nonfinancial manager why the measure should take priority over all others,
and why a higher added value is always better than a lower added value
whatever the rate of return per pound invested.
3.9 CONCLUSION
TABLE 1
TABLE2
B1 B2 B3 B4
YEAR
2 - - - -
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE PROJECTS WITH CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM NPV AND IRR
TABLE 3
PROJECT B1 PROJECT B2
PV PV
FACTOR PV FACTOR PV
EQUIVALENT ONE
YEAR INVESTMENT 5980 2181
____ ____
C1 -£10M - - +£13.3M 0
TABLE 5
1. The scale of an investment is a function not only of initial outlay but also of cash flow pattern
and of project life. Consequently, every project has a unique scale. In normal, nonrationing
conditions the greater the scale of a project for a given NPV the better.
5. The fundamental flaw in IRR as a criterion for evaluating competing projects is therefore not
related to any reinvestment assumptions inherent in the method, but can be attributed entirely to
the scale factor in investment. Because all projects are different in scale, IRR, as a ratio, is
intrinsically invalid, even when it happens to give the correct ranking. Even for accept-or-reject
investment decisions IRR is misleading because it suggests that the investment's cash flow recovery
should be managed, wherever possible, in such a way as to give the investment a high IRR rather
than a high NPVs.
4. The Internal Rate of Return is widely used in the securities market in the
form of the redemption yield on bonds etc. Explain why the concept
cannot not validly be extended to the capital budgeting context.
A B
Outlay £50m £80m
NPV £4m £4m
IRR 18% 16%
C D
Outlay £100M £100M
NPV 0 0
Payback 5 years 3 years
E F
YEAR 0 Outlay £100M £70M
The company is confident that the cash inflow of £60M from project
F in year 1 could be reinvested at 30%. Consider which project the
company should choose, explaining your decision.
READINGS
TEXT BOOKS
All standard finance texts. These rather than journal articles provide the
best insight into the conventional interpretation of the share price
maximising objective and its implications for financial decision-making.
These include:
ARTICLES
Moore, J.S. and Reichert, A.K. (1983) "An Analysis of the Financial
Management Techniques currently employed by large US
Corporations", Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol 10, No 4
pp623-645.