Escenarios de Cambio climtico en Colombia y la agricultura: Impactos sobre productividad

Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Peter Laderach, Edward Guevara Program Leader, Decision and Policy Analysis, CIAT

Contenido
La importancia de tener buenos predicciones de clima para poder estimar impactos La demanda de informacion para la agricultura Un breve resumen de los modelos Impactos en productividad Impactos en pestes y enfermedades Perspectivas para el futuro

La demanda - resolucion
Agricultura es una industria de nicho Entonces necesitamos datos de clima relevantes para caracterizar el nicho Escala: 1km, 90m?

La demanda - variables
Necesitamos multiples variables
Menos importantes
Max, min, media

Precipitacion
Humedad relativa
Radiacion solar
Vientos .

Mas certidumbre

Temperatura

La demanda - tiempos
Necesitamos como minimo datos mensuales Para algunas aplicaciones detallados (ej. modelos mechanisticos) necesitamos datos diarios 2050 y 2080 son irrelevantes para la toma de decision en agricultura Estamos buscando pronosticos para variabilidad climatica (within season, seasonal, annual, Nino/Nina) Y para cambio en linea base: 2020-2030

La demanda - certidumbre
Los cultivos son suprememente sensibles a sus condiciones climaticos Para adaptaciones especificos, necesitamos alta certidumbre Faltando certidumbre, trabajamos en resiliencia (pero es mas dificil)

Los modelos de pronostico de clima

Los modelos
Empezo con los GCMs
Grillas grandes, muy complejos

Vamos hacia los RCMs

Grillas mas pequenhas, igualmente complejos

Modelos GCM : Global Climate Models

21 global climate models (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosfricas, qumica, fsica, biologa Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases

INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)

25 e;
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+- '

enanos -A1B

11 11 11

-- 1T --m- 1FI
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10

Mensaje 1
En la agricultura, las diferentes escenarios de emisiones no son importantes: de aqui a 2030 la diferencia entre escenarios es minima

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCCMA-CGCM2

CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47

CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63

CNRM-CM3

IAP-FGOALS-1.0G

GISS-AOM

GFDL-CM2.1

GFDL-CM2.0

CSIRO-MK3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2-HIRES

MIROC3.2-MEDRES

MIUB-ECHO-G

MPI-ECHAM5

MRI-CGCM2.3.2A

NCAR-PCM1

UKMO-HADCM3

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCCMA-CGCM2

CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47

CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63

CNRM-CM3

IAP-FGOALS-1.0G

GISS-AOM

GFDL-CM2.1

GFDL-CM2.0

CSIRO-MK3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2-HIRES

MIROC3.2-MEDRES

MIUB-ECHO-G

MPI-ECHAM5

MRI-CGCM2.3.2A

NCAR-PCM1

UKMO-HADCM3

Todos los modelos- promedio prec 2010-2039 -A1B

Todos los modelos - SD prec 2010-2039 - A 1 B

Todos los modelos- promedio tmean 2010-2039 - A 1 B

Todos los modelos- SD tmean 2010-2039 - A 1 B

Cambio (mm)

D o.77 - 2.35
2.36 - 3.09 3.1- 3.84 3.85 -4.88

=::J -0.22 - o =::J 0.01 - 1.15

1.16 -1.87 .1.88 - 3.32

D o.89 -1.o3 D 1.04-1.14

1.24-1.31 -

D o.2 - o.27 D o.28 - o.31

0.32 - 0.35 0.36 - 0.41 -

- -1.58 - -0.23

4.89 - 6.3

11 modelos- promedio prec 2010-2039 - A1B

11 modelos- SD prec 2010-2039 -A1B

-0.22 - 0 0.01 -1.15 2.36 - 3.09 3.1- 3.84

-1.58 --0.23 o.89 -1.o3

D o.77 - 2.35
1.15-1.23

D 1.04-1.14

D
. 1.16-1.87 1.88 - 3.32

o .

2 8 -

- o.31 0.32 - 0.35 3.85 -4.88

4.89 - 6.3

1.32 -1.47

0.42 - 0.47

Mensaje 2
La incertidumbre cientifico SI es relevante para la agricultura: tenemos que tomar decisiones dentro de un contexto de incertidumbre Y Depender de un limitado numero de GCM es peligroso

Bases de Datos
Bases de datos de CIAT para 2030 y 2050 Para elaboracin de senderos de adaptacion

http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/

Region Amazonas Amazonas Amazonas Amazonas Amazonas Andina Andina Andina Andina Andina Andina Andina Caribe Caribe Caribe Caribe Caribe Caribe Caribe Eje Cafetero Eje Cafetero Eje Cafetero Llanos Llanos Llanos Llanos Llanos Pacifico Sur Occidente Sur Occidente Sur Occidente

Departamento Amazonas Caqueta Guania Guaviare Putumayo Antioquia Boyaca Cundinamarca Huila Norte de santander Santander Tolima Atlantico Bolivar Cesar Cordoba Guajira Magdalena Sucre Caldas Quindio Risaralda Arauca Casanare Meta Vaupes Vichada Choco Cauca Narino Valle del Cauca

Cambio en Cambio en Cambio en Incertidumbre meses Cambio en Temperatura estacionalidad de entre modelos consecutivos Precipitacion media precipitacion (StDev prec) secos 12 2.9 1.4 0 135 138 2.7 -1.3 0 193 55 2.9 -3.2 0 271 72 2.8 -2.9 -1 209 117 2.6 0.6 0 170 18 2.1 1.3 0 129 50 2.7 -3.9 -1 144 152 2.6 -2.6 0 170 51 2.4 1.0 0 144 73 2.8 -0.4 0 216 51 2.7 -2.4 0 158 86 2.4 -3.1 0 148 -74 2.2 -2.9 2 135 90 2.5 -1.8 0 242 -119 2.6 -1.3 0 160 -11 2.3 -3.8 0 160 -69 2.2 -1.8 0 86 -158 2.4 -1.8 0 153 10 2.4 -4.1 -1 207 252 2.4 -4.2 -1 174 153 2.3 -4.1 -1 145 158 2.4 -3.5 -1 141 -13 2.9 -6.4 -1 188 163 2.8 -5.7 -1 229 10 2.7 -5.4 -1 180 46 2.8 -1.4 0 192 59 2.6 -2.6 0 152 -157 2.2 -1.2 0 148 172 2.3 -1.6 0 168 155 2.2 -1.4 0 126 275 2.3 -5.1 -1 166

La demanda vs. la oferta

Demanda GCMs RCMs GCMs con downscaling empirico Si

Alta resolucion

No

Moderado

Variables

Si

Si

No

Frecuencia

Si

Si

No

Certidumbre

Moderado

Baja

Moderado

Entonces que hacemos frente todo esto?

2009 Union of Concerned Scoentlsts

"Some say it's irrevocable, others say it's irreversible. Given such an absence of consensus 1 suggest we do nothing drastic."

Entonces que hacemos frente todo esto?

No hay una sola estrategia gana-gana Necesitamos multiples acercamientos para mejorar la base de informacion acerca de escenarios de cambio climatico
Desarollo de RCMs (multiples: PRECIS NO ES SUFICIENTE) Downscaling empirico, metodos hybridos Probamos diferentes metodologias

Se requiere flujo de informacion (CCC): compartimos, comparemos, charlamos (chismoseamos)

Un anlisis sectorial para Colombia

Un sector con mucho cultivo permanente

3.500.000 Distribucion de cultivo rea (ha) Distribucion de cultivo Pdn (Ton) 3.000.000 2.500.000

2.000.000

1.500.000

1.000.000

500.000

Actual Cultivo Arroz total Cebada Maz Sorgo Trigo Ajonjol Frjol Soya Man Algodn Papa Tabaco rubio Hortalizas Banano exportacin Cacao Caa de azcar Tabaco negro Flores Palma africana Caa panela Pltano exportacin Coco Fique ame Yuca Pltano no exportable Frutales Caf Nm. Deptos 26 4 31 14 6 6 25 6 4 15 13 12 14 2 27 6 5 2 14 24 1 10 8 9 31 31 18 17 rea (ha) 460,767 2,305 626,616 44,528 18,539 3,216 124,189 23,608 2,278 55,914 163,505 9,082 20,265 44,245 113,921 235,118 5,376 8,700 154,787 219,441 19,187 16,482 19,651 25,105 194,572 375,232 148,574 613,373 Pdn (Ton) 2,496,118 3,939 1,370,456 137,362 44,374 2,771 146,344 42,937 2,586 126,555 2,883,354 15,509 270,230 1,567,443 60,218 3,259,779 9,648 218,122 598,078 1,189,335 209,647 127,554 21,687 261,188 2,107,939 3,080,718 1,417,919 708,214

Temperatura (%) 2-2.5C 64.6 47.2 80.5 97.0 69.0 100.0 84.6 0.3 91.0 98.0 71.5 31.7 84.9 100.0 40.2 99.6 33.6 100.0 54.8 77.8 100.0 100.0 78.1 100.0 70.9 79.8 72.5 84.7 2.5-3C 35.4 52.8 19.5 3.0 31.0 0.0 15.4 99.7 9.0 2.0 28.5 68.3 15.1 0.0 59.8 0.4 66.4 0.0 45.2 22.2 0.0 0.0 21.9 0.0 29.1 20.2 27.5 15.3

Precipitacin (%) -3-0% 15.7 0.0 27.7 33.8 0.2 69.0 10.7 0.0 0.0 14.6 2.6 16.9 16.1 26.9 17.3 1.1 17.9 0.0 54.2 6.1 0.0 10.7 0.3 46.7 39.8 7.2 7.7 8.2 0-3% 23.6 28.5 37.1 3.8 68.4 28.5 40.4 0.0 47.2 55.7 27.1 47.3 28.7 73.1 53.2 0.0 75.2 16.1 36.3 33.8 100.0 69.3 55.1 53.3 41.4 36.1 22.5 28.8 3-5% 60.7 71.5 35.2 62.4 31.5 2.5 48.9 100.0 52.8 29.7 70.4 35.8 55.2 0.0 29.5 98.9 6.9 83.9 9.5 60.2 0.0 19.9 44.6 0.0 18.9 56.6 69.8 63.1

The Model: EcoCrop

So, how does it work?

It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation

and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature

Adaptabilidad actualde caf SRES A1B

Adaptabilidad futura de caf - 2020 SRES A1B

Cambio en adaptabi lidad de caf- 2020 SRES A1B

Conformidad entre modelos SRESA1B

'

Cambio en Adaptabilidad(%)

Adaptabilida Adaptabilidad(%) ;

-100 --70 -tl9- -40

Conformidad (% .. .

- 50 - 60 - 61- 70

50 - 60 61 - 70 81- 90 91 - 100

D -39- -15
o-14 -o [:=11 -20 21-50 51-100

0-20 21 - 40 61 - 80 81-100

071- 80
C]81-90 - 91- 100

CJ 71 - 80

CJ 41 - 60

Adaptabil'ldad actualde caf SRESA2

Adaptabilidad futura de caf - 2020 SRESA2

Cambio en adaptabilidad de caf2 020 SRESA2

Conform'ldad entre modelos SRESA2

Cambio en Adaptabilidad(%)

i i Adaptab il dad(%) Adaptabilidad(%)

-100--70 .{59--40

50 - 60 61 -70 81 - 90 91 - 100

50-60 61 -70

D -39- -15 D -14- o

01 -20 21-50 51- 100

0-20 21- 40 61- 80

071-80

071 - 80 CJ 81 - 90 91 - 100

041- 60 81 - 100

Impactos en Colombia: cambio (%) en productividad a nivel Nacional

Cambio adaptabilidad (%) 2050-A2
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 Cambio adaptabilidad (%) 2050-A2 -16 -18

Cambios promedios por departamento

Cambio promedio en adaptabilidad
15

10 Cambio promedio en adaptabilidad 5

-5

-10

-15

Dos casos diferentes: Bolivar vs. Cauca

30,00 20,00

10,00

0,00

-10,00

-20,00 Bolivar -30,00 Cauca -40,00

-50,00

-60,00

Conclusiones preliminares
Cultivos permanentes (66.4% del PIB de 2007) seriamente afectados: y son cultivos de inversiones de largo plazo Tema de seguridad alimentaria, y pobreza: muchas de los cultivos afectados son de agicultores pequenos Claras prioridades nacionales (por ejemplo. Costa Caribe, cultivos especificos) Prioridades locales: enfoque hacia seguridad alimentario

Mensaje 3
Hay retos y oportunidades: el pais deberia tener una estrategia para enfrentar ambos

Un Ejemplo mas local

El susto de caf en Cauca

Climas mueven hacia arriba

Rango Altitudinal 190-500 501-1000 1000-1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 Tmedia anual actual 25.54 23.47 21.29 18.36 15.60 13.33 Tmedia anual futuro 27.70 25.66 23.50 20.58 17.82 15.54

Tmedia Ppt total Ppt anual anual an cambio actual fut (C) 2.16 5891 2.19 3490 2.21 2537 2.22 2519 2.22 2555 2.21 2471

Temperatura media reduce por 0.51oC por cada 100m en la zona cafetero. Un cambio de 2.2oC equivale a una diferencia de 440m.

Suitability in Cauca
Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050 The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities.

MECETA

Suitability variation s with altitude

0.32 ........................................................................... .............................................................................................................................. .

- current

0.3 ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
0.28 .......................................................................................... ..

- 2020 - 2050

0.26
0.24 ............................................................................................,.. ,,

0.22 0.2 . 0.18

!: V, 0.14
0.12 0.1 0.08
0.06

"' 0.16

..................................................................................... .... .... ...................

......................................................................................................................................

0.04 ....................................................................

....................... .. ..... .....

........................................................................................................................... .

;;; oo-:l!. .. " 'T ;, ; . 'j)m m o 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Alt ude (m)

Mensaje 4

Localmente va a ver cambios drasticos con la geografia de los cultivos cambiando

Minimising impacts: Breeding for beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) towards 2020

How are beans standing up currently?

Growing season (days)

90

Growing season (days)

90

Killing temperature (C) Minimum absolute temperature (C) Minimum optimum temperature (C) Maximum optimum temperature (C) Maximum absolute temperature (C)

Parameters determined Killing temperature (C) 0 based on statistical analysis of current bean Mi imum absolute 13.6 gm ro n g e(n vi te pw eri a tu re C )ronments fr o tho eptA fr ca and LAC M in im um im uim 17.5 te ra tu ( C Bm ep ae n A trle as e s).

13.6 17.5 23.1

Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) Maximum absolute rainfall (mm)

200 363 450 710

25.6

What will likely happen?

2020 A2

2020 A2 - changes

Technology options: breeding for drought and waterlogging tolerance

Change in suitable areas [>80%] (%)
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% None +5% +10% +15% +20% +25 %

14 Benefited areas (million hectares)

Some 22.8% (3.8 million ha) would benefit from drought tolerance improvement to 2020s

Drought tolerance

Cropped lands Non-cropped lands Global s uitable areas

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Currently cropped lands Not currently cropped lands

Waterlogging tolerance

Ropmin

Ropmax

Not benefited

Crop resilience improvement

Technology options: breeding for heat and cold tolerance

Change in suitable areas [>80%] (%)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
-2.5 C -2 C -1.5 C -1 C -0.5 C None +0.5 C +1 C +1.5 C +2 C +2.5 C

14
Cropped lands Non-cropped lands

Benefited areas (million hectares)

Currently cropped lands 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Topmin Topmax Not benefited

Some 42.7% (7.2 million ha) would benefit from heat tolerance improvement to 2020s

Not currently cropped lands

Cold tolerance

Global s uitable areas

Heat tolerance
Crop resilience improvement

Distribucin del arroz en Colombia por sistemas de produccin

Climate characteristic

General climate change description Average Climate Change Trends of Espinal

The rainfall increases from 1409 millimeters to 1476.2 millimeters in 2050 passing through 1364.5 in 2020 General Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.24 C passing through an increment of 0.72 C in 2020 climate The mean daily temperature range increases from 10.9 C to 11.38 C in 2050 characteristics The maximum number of cumulative dry months keeps constant in 3 months The The The The maximum temperature of the year increases from 34.8 C to 37.77 C while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 2.5 C in 2050 minimum temperature of the year increases from 21.8 C to 23.78 C while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 2.17 C in 2050 wettest month gets wetter with 213.45 millimeters instead of 212 millimeters, while the wettest quarter gets wetter by 10.05 mm in driest month gets wetter with 45.9 millimeters instead of 41 millimeters while the driest quarter gets wetter by 9.85 mm in 2050

Extreme conditions

Climate Seasonality Variability between models

Overall this climate becomes more seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and less seasonal in precipitation The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 3.03% Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected The coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 12.44% Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected 40

250

35 200 30 ) m 150 m ( n o i t a t i p i100 c e r P

Current precipitation Precipitation 2050 Precipitation 2020 Mean tem perature 2020 Mean tem perature 2050 Current m ean tem perature Maxim um tem perature 2020 Maxim um tem perature 2050 Current m axim um tem perature Minim um tem perature 2020 Minim um tem perature 2050 Current m inim um tem perature

25

20

15

) C ( e r tu a r e p m e T

10 50 5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Month 8 9 10 11 12

Espinal 2020 y 2050

These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 18 GCM models from the 3th (2001) and the 4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information please check the website http://www.ipcc- data.org

Climate characteristic

General climate change description Average Climate Change Trends of Sikasso

The rainfall increases from 1061.65 millimeters to 1185.42 millimeters in 2050 passing through 1100.64 in 2020 General climate Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.65 C passing through an increment of 1.05 C in 2020 characteristics The mean daily temperature range increases from 13.71 C to 13.75 C in 2050 The maximum number of cumulative dry months decreases from 8 months to 7 months The maximum temperature of the year increases from 37.41 C to 40.9 C while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 2.98 C in 2050 The minimum temperature of the year increases from 14.74 C to 17.02 C while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 2.54 C in 2050 The wettest month gets wetter with 300.47 millimeters instead of 282.08 millimeters, while the wettest quarter gets wetter by 14.07 mm in 2050 The driest month gets wetter with 2.86 millimeters instead of 0.81 millimeters while the driest quarter gets wetter by 30.71 mm in 2050 Overall this climate becomes more seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and less seasonal in precipitation The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 4.37% Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected The coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 11.68% Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected 45 40 35 250 Precipitation (mm) 30 200 25 20 15 100 10 50 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Month 7 8 9 10 11 12 Temperature (C)

Extreme conditions

Climate Seasonality Variability between models

350

300

Current precipitation Precipitation 2050 Precipitation 2020 Mean temperature 2020 Mean temperature 2050 Current mean temperature Maximum temperature 2020 Maximum temperature 2050 Current maximum temperature Minimum temperature 2020 Minimum temperature 2050 Current minimum temperature

150

Sikasso, Mali

These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 18 GCM models from the 3th (2001) and the 4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information please check the website http://www.ipcc-data.org

Como adaptamos?
POLITICAS PUBLICOS Y PRIVADOS INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TECNOLOGICO

Necesitamos saber que hacemos, como lo hacemos, cuando lo hacemos y donde? Primero paso es analisar el problema Segundo, analisar opciones de adaptacion Evaluar costo-beneficio para el sector Implementar HAZLO AHORA!
BUEN AGRONOMIA

a.jarvis@cgiar.org