DESCARGAS MAXIMAS EXTREMAS (m3/s)

AO
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO

860.0
610.0
124.0
135.0
95.0
450.0
1900.0
620.0
438.0
379.0
390.0
39.0
508.0
1525.0
185.0
2220.0
405.0
2250.0
273.0
220.0
134.0
41.0
42.5
1010.0
0.0
0.0
153.0
2200.0
44.0
350.0
1530.0
1700.0
690.0
900.0
81.0
88.0
115.0
37.0
33.0
2500.0
49.0
82.0
21.0
180.0
29.0
545.0
1616.0
845.0
58.0
272.0
388.0
646.0
167.0

5000

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000

1500
1000
500
0

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

74.0
45.0
568.0
390.0
3200.0
980.0
112.0
25.0
574.0
6.0
845.0
6.0
14.0
1793.0
1042.0
1108.0
75.0
100.9
638.1
4424.0
3107.0

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO

Herramientas / Anlisis de Datos / Estadstica Desciptiva

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO
Media
Mediana
Moda
Desviacin estndar
Varianza
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetra
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
Cuenta

666.2
364.5
390
883.4
780454
4.60
2.06
4424
0
4424
49299.5
74

DESCARGAS MAXIMAS EXTREMAS (m3/s)

AO
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

Q
860.0
610.0
124.0
135.0
95.0
450.0
1900.0
620.0
438.0
379.0
390.0
39.0
508.0
1525.0
185.0
2220.0
405.0
2250.0
273.0
220.0
134.0
41.0
42.5
1010.0
0.0
0.0
153.0
2200.0
44.0
350.0
1530.0
1700.0
690.0
900.0
81.0
88.0
115.0
37.0
33.0
2500.0
49.0
82.0
21.0
180.0
29.0
545.0
1616.0
845.0
58.0

Q ORDENADOS
4424.0
3200.0
3107.0
2500.0
2250.0
2220.0
2200.0
1900.0
1793.0
1700.0
1616.0
1530.0
1525.0
1108.0
1042.0
1010.0
980.0
900.0
860.0
845.0
845.0
690.0
646.0
638.1
620.0
610.0
574.0
568.0
545.0
508.0
450.0
438.0
405.0
390.0
390.0
388.0
379.0
350.0
273.0
272.0
220.0
185.0
180.0
167.0
153.0
135.0
134.0
124.0
115.0

F(x)
1.0000
0.9979
0.9971
0.9810
0.9635
0.9607
0.9587
0.9187
0.8989
0.8790
0.8588
0.8359
0.8345
0.6915
0.6647
0.6514
0.6388
0.6044
0.5868
0.5802
0.5802
0.5107
0.4909
0.4873
0.4791
0.4746
0.4584
0.4557
0.4454
0.4289
0.4033
0.3981
0.3837
0.3773
0.3773
0.3764
0.3726
0.3602
0.3281
0.3277
0.3067
0.2930
0.2910
0.2860
0.2806
0.2738
0.2734
0.2697
0.2663

f(x)
0.000000
0.000007
0.000010
0.000052
0.000091
0.000096
0.000100
0.000170
0.000200
0.000228
0.000253
0.000280
0.000282
0.000399
0.000413
0.000419
0.000424
0.000436
0.000441
0.000442
0.000442
0.000451
0.000451
0.000451
0.000451
0.000451
0.000449
0.000449
0.000447
0.000444
0.000438
0.000437
0.000432
0.000430
0.000430
0.000430
0.000428
0.000424
0.000409
0.000409
0.000398
0.000389
0.000388
0.000385
0.000381
0.000377
0.000377
0.000374
0.000372

0.00050
0.00045
0.00040
0.00035
0.00030
0.00025
0.00020
0.00015
0.00010
0.00005
0

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

272.0
388.0
646.0
167.0
74.0
45.0
568.0
390.0
3200.0
980.0
112.0
25.0
574.0
6.0
845.0
6.0
14.0
1793.0
1042.0
1108.0
75.0
100.9
638.1
4424.0
3107.0

112.0
100.9
95.0
88.0
82.0
81.0
75.0
74.0
58.0
49.0
45.0
44.0
42.5
41.0
39.0
37.0
33.0
29.0
25.0
21.0
14.0
6.0
6.0
0.0
0.0

0.2652
0.2611
0.2590
0.2564
0.2542
0.2538
0.2517
0.2513
0.2456
0.2424
0.2410
0.2406
0.2401
0.2396
0.2389
0.2382
0.2368
0.2354
0.2340
0.2326
0.2302
0.2274
0.2274
0.2254
0.2254

0.000371
0.000368
0.000366
0.000365
0.000363
0.000363
0.000361
0.000361
0.000356
0.000354
0.000353
0.000352
0.000352
0.000352
0.000351
0.000350
0.000349
0.000348
0.000347
0.000346
0.000344
0.000342
0.000342
0.000340
0.000340

MEDIA
DESV.EST.

666.21
883.43

histograma

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS

AO
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930

Q
860.0
610.0
124.0
135.0
95.0

Q ORDENADOS
4424.0
3200.0
3107.0
2500.0
2250.0

y = ln (x)
8.3948
8.0709
8.0414
7.8240
7.7187

F(x)
0.9495
0.9280
0.9257
0.9073
0.8972

f(x)
0.0576
0.0760
0.0779
0.0920
0.0992

1931

450.0

2220.0

7.7053

0.8959

0.1002

1932

1900.0

2200.0

7.6962

0.8949

0.1008

1933

620.0

1900.0

7.5496

0.8794

0.1112

1934

438.0

1793.0

7.4916

0.8728

0.1154

1935

379.0

1700.0

7.4384

0.8666

0.1193

1936

390.0

1616.0

7.3877

0.8604

0.1231

1937

39.0

1530.0

7.3330

0.8536

0.1271

1938

508.0

1525.0

7.3297

0.8532

0.1274

1939

1525.0

1108.0

7.0103

0.8087

0.1510

1940

185.0

1042.0

6.9489

0.7993

0.1555

1941

2220.0

1010.0

6.9177

0.7944

0.1577

1942

405.0

980.0

6.8876

0.7896

0.1599

1943

2250.0

900.0

6.8024

0.7758

0.1659

1944

273.0

860.0

6.7569

0.7681

0.1690

1945

220.0

845.0

6.7393

0.7652

0.1702

1946

134.0

845.0

6.7393

0.7652

0.1702

1947

41.0

690.0

6.5367

0.7293

0.1835

1948

42.5

646.0

6.4708

0.7171

0.1875

1949

1010.0

638.1

6.4585

0.7148

0.1882

1950

0.0

620.0

6.4297

0.7093

0.1899

1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973

0.0
153.0
2200.0
44.0
350.0
1530.0
1700.0
690.0
900.0
81.0
88.0
115.0
37.0
33.0
2500.0
49.0
82.0
21.0
180.0
29.0
545.0
1616.0
845.0

610.0
574.0
568.0
545.0
508.0
450.0
438.0
405.0
390.0
390.0
388.0
379.0
350.0
273.0
272.0
220.0
185.0
180.0
167.0
153.0
135.0
134.0
124.0

6.4135
6.3526
6.3421
6.3008
6.2305
6.1092
6.0822
6.0039
5.9661
5.9661
5.9610
5.9375
5.8579
5.6095
5.6058
5.3936
5.2204
5.1930
5.1180
5.0304
4.9053
4.8978
4.8203

0.7062
0.6945
0.6925
0.6844
0.6704
0.6457
0.6402
0.6238
0.6158
0.6158
0.6147
0.6098
0.5927
0.5386
0.5378
0.4909
0.4528
0.4467
0.4304
0.4114
0.3846
0.3831
0.3668

0.1908
0.1942
0.1948
0.1970
0.2006
0.2061
0.2073
0.2103
0.2117
0.2117
0.2119
0.2126
0.2151
0.2200
0.2201
0.2210
0.2195
0.2191
0.2177
0.2156
0.2118
0.2115
0.2086

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

58.0
272.0
388.0
646.0
167.0
74.0
45.0
568.0
390.0
3200.0
980.0
112.0
25.0
574.0
6.0
845.0
6.0
14.0
1793.0
1042.0
1108.0
75.0
100.9
638.1
4424.0
3107.0

115.0
112.0
100.9
95.0
88.0
82.0
81.0
75.0
74.0
58.0
49.0
45.0
44.0
42.5
41.0
39.0
37.0
33.0
29.0
25.0
21.0
14.0
6.0
6.0
1.0
1.0

4.7449
4.7185
4.6141
4.5539
4.4773
4.4067
4.3944
4.3175
4.3041
4.0604
3.8918
3.8067
3.7842
3.7495
3.7136
3.6636
3.6109
3.4965
3.3673
3.2189
3.0445
2.6391
1.7918
1.7918
-

0.3512
0.3458
0.3247
0.3128
0.2979
0.2845
0.2822
0.2679
0.2655
0.2232
0.1963
0.1835
0.1802
0.1752
0.1701
0.1632
0.1561
0.1414
0.1260
0.1098
0.0927
0.0607
0.0218
0.0218
0.0013
0.0013

0.2055
0.2043
0.1994
0.1962
0.1921
0.1880
0.1872
0.1825
0.1817
0.1654
0.1534
0.1472
0.1455
0.1430
0.1403
0.1366
0.1327
0.1242
0.1147
0.1040
0.0920
0.0666
0.0288
0.0288
0.0024
0.0024

MEDIA
DESV.EST.

histograma de los x
0.25

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr

0.20

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

0.15

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =

--> Pno exc = 1-P exc =

0.10

z = f ( Pno exc)

0.05

z=
0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

y=

x (Caudales)

y=
histograma de los y

y=

0.25

y=

0.20

x=
x=

0.15

0.10

0.05

6
y = ln x

10

666.21
883.43

MEDIA
DESV.EST.
C.ASIMETRIA

5.4346
1.8046
(0.8016)

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc
--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =
--> Pno exc = 1-P exc =

0.01
0.99

=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
2.3263479
m+z s
5,435 + 2,326 * 1,805
9.6327
ln (x)
e (y)
15255.9

0.2500

0.2000

0.1500

0.1000

0.0500

f(x)

ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS

AO

Q ORDENADOS

y = ln (x-a)

F(x)

f(x)

1926

860.0

4424.0

8.40045

0.97458

0.04336

1927

610.0

3200.0

8.07871

0.95705

0.06678

4424

1928
1929
1930
1931

124.0
135.0
95.0
450.0

3107.0
2500.0
2250.0
2220.0

8.04945
7.83402
7.72977
7.71649

0.95506
0.93803
0.92816
0.92682

0.06926
0.08937
0.10020
0.10163

1616
845
610
185

1932

1900.0

2200.0

7.70754

0.92590

0.10260

1933

620.0

1900.0

7.56272

0.90987

0.11892

1934

438.0

1793.0

7.50553

0.90288

0.12566

1935

379.0

1700.0

7.45302

0.89612

0.13199

1936

390.0

1616.0

7.40310

0.88938

0.13811

1937

39.0

1530.0

7.34927

0.88176

0.14482

1938

508.0

1525.0

7.34605

0.88130

0.14522

1939

1525.0

1108.0

7.03268

0.82951

0.18546

1940

185.0

1042.0

6.97267

0.81815

0.19319

1941

2220.0

1010.0

6.94222

0.81221

0.19709

1942

405.0

980.0

6.91281

0.80636

0.20084

1943

2250.0

900.0

6.82987

0.78927

0.21126

1944

273.0

860.0

6.78566

0.77981

0.21671

1945

220.0

845.0

6.76857

0.77609

0.21880

1946

134.0

845.0

6.76857

0.77609

0.21880

1947

41.0

690.0

6.57238

0.73089

0.24148

1948

42.5

646.0

6.50887

0.71534

0.24822

1949

1010.0

638.1

6.49703

0.71239

0.24943

1950

0.0

620.0

6.46936

0.70545

0.25223

1951

0.0

610.0

6.45373

0.70150

0.25377

1952

153.0

574.0

6.39538

0.68653

0.25933

1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967

2200.0
44.0
350.0
1530.0
1700.0
690.0
900.0
81.0
88.0
115.0
37.0
33.0
2500.0
49.0
82.0

568.0
545.0
508.0
450.0
438.0
405.0
390.0
390.0
388.0
379.0
350.0
273.0
272.0
220.0
185.0

6.38531
6.34576
6.27865
6.16346
6.13787
6.06394
6.02844
6.02844
6.02361
6.00158
5.92711
5.69732
5.69396
5.50154
5.34743

0.68391
0.67355
0.65566
0.62414
0.61702
0.59622
0.58613
0.58613
0.58475
0.57846
0.55704
0.49018
0.48920
0.43335
0.38952

0.26025
0.26377
0.26933
0.27760
0.27920
0.28331
0.28501
0.28501
0.28523
0.28618
0.28885
0.29175
0.29173
0.28776
0.28058

1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

21.0
180.0
29.0
545.0
1616.0
845.0
58.0
272.0
388.0
646.0
167.0
74.0
45.0
568.0
390.0
3200.0
980.0
112.0
25.0
574.0
6.0
845.0
6.0
14.0
1793.0
1042.0
1108.0
75.0
100.9
638.1
4424.0
3107.0

180.0
167.0
153.0
135.0
134.0
124.0
115.0
112.0
100.9
95.0
88.0
82.0
81.0
75.0
74.0
58.0
49.0
45.0
44.0
42.5
41.0
39.0
37.0
33.0
29.0
25.0
21.0
14.0
6.0
6.0
1.0
1.0

5.32334
5.25785
5.18217
5.07560
5.06933
5.00440
4.94213
4.92048
4.83603
4.78806
4.72799
4.67346
4.66408
4.60585
4.59581
4.41966
4.30498
4.24947
4.23509
4.21313
4.19068
4.15995
4.12823
4.06161
3.99024
3.91338
3.83012
3.66530
3.43618
3.43618
3.26071
3.26071

0.38277
0.36463
0.34403
0.31581
0.31419
0.29753
0.28194
0.27662
0.25633
0.24517
0.23156
0.21958
0.21755
0.20523
0.20315
0.16871
0.14843
0.13923
0.13691
0.13342
0.12992
0.12522
0.12050
0.11100
0.10144
0.09182
0.08218
0.06538
0.04660
0.04660
0.03537
0.03537

0.27915
0.27487
0.26924
0.26016
0.25958
0.25340
0.24708
0.24480
0.23554
0.23005
0.22297
0.21637
0.21522
0.20799
0.20673
0.18421
0.16937
0.16221
0.16037
0.15755
0.15468
0.15078
0.14677
0.13845
0.12972
0.12057
0.11098
0.09317
0.07132
0.07132
0.05702
0.05702

lmites

f`

Chi2

1700

10000

1650

10

9.2

2.547

0.995

7.58

0.7752

860
620
220
1

1650
850
615
200

850
615
200
1

9
6
16
33

7.4
6.8
6.5
5.4

1.238
0.763
0.534
-0.230

0.892
0.777
0.703
0.409

8.50
5.46
21.79
30.27

0.0296
0.0524
1.5396
0.2470

( N j n. p j ) 2

j 1

n. p j

c
2

Si quiero conocer el caudal pa

(obs teor) 2

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

teor
j 1
k

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =

--> Pno exc = 1-P exc =

z = f ( Pexc)
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAN
z = 2.3263479
y= m+z s
y = 5,731 + 2,326 * 1,367
y=
y=
x-a=

8.9111
ln (x - a)
e (y)

x - a = 7413.4854
x = 7413,477 - 25,068
x=

7388.4

MEDIA
DESV.EST.
5 MEDIA
3 DESV.EST.

2.6437
k
m
gdl

666.21
883.43
5.4346
1.8046

1
0.00393214

LN2; C.A.=
0.25
0.20
0.15

C.ASIMETRIA

(0.8016)

onocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

0.10
0.05

que Tr = 1 / P exc

0.01
0.99

DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

731 + 2,326 * 1,367

413,477 - 25,068

LN3; C.A.=
0.35

MEDIA
DESV.EST.
a

5.7310
1.3670
(25.0680)

0.30
0.25
0.20

C.ASIMETRIA

6.61E-06

0.15
0.10
0.05
0

; C.A.=-0,8

; C.A.=0

ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL

AO
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973

Q
860.0
610.0
124.0
135.0
95.0
450.0
1900.0
620.0
438.0
379.0
390.0
39.0
508.0
1525.0
185.0
2220.0
405.0
2250.0
273.0
220.0
134.0
41.0
42.0
1010.0
0.0
0.0
153.0
2200.0
44.0
350.0
1530.0
1700.0
690.0
900.0
81.0
88.0
115.0
37.0
33.0
2500.0
49.0
82.0
21.0
180.0
29.0
545.0
1616.0
845.0

Q ORDENADOS
4424.0
3200.0
3107.0
2500.0
2250.0
2220.0
2200.0
1900.0
1793.0
1700.0
1616.0
1530.0
1525.0
1108.0
1042.0
1010.0
980.0
900.0
860.0
845.0
845.0
690.0
646.0
638.1
620.0
610.0
574.0
568.0
545.0
508.0
450.0
438.0
405.0
390.0
390.0
388.0
379.0
350.0
273.0
272.0
220.0
185.0
180.0
167.0
153.0
135.0
134.0
124.0

Var. Reducida
y = (x - u)/a
5.61
3.97
3.84
3.02
2.69
2.65
2.62
2.22
2.07
1.95
1.83
1.72
1.71
1.15
1.06
1.02
0.98
0.87
0.82
0.80
0.80
0.59
0.53
0.52
0.49
0.48
0.43
0.42
0.39
0.34
0.26
0.25
0.20
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.13
0.03
0.03
(0.04)
(0.09)
(0.10)
(0.12)
(0.14)
(0.16)
(0.16)
(0.17)

Tr
274.53
53.27
47.06
21.07
15.20
14.62
14.24
9.68
8.45
7.52
6.77
6.09
6.05
3.69
3.42
3.30
3.19
2.92
2.80
2.75
2.75
2.35
2.25
2.23
2.19
2.17
2.09
2.08
2.04
1.97
1.87
1.85
1.79
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.75
1.71
1.61
1.61
1.54
1.50
1.50
1.48
1.47
1.45
1.45
1.44

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

58.0
272.0
388.0
646.0
167.0
74.0
45.0
568.0
390.0
3200.0
980.0
112.0
25.0

115.0
112.0
100.9
95.0
88.0
82.0
81.0
75.0
74.0
58.0
49.0
45.0
44.0

(0.19)
(0.19)
(0.21)
(0.21)
(0.22)
(0.23)
(0.23)
(0.24)
(0.24)
(0.26)
(0.27)
(0.28)
(0.28)

1.43
1.43
1.41
1.41
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.39
1.39
1.37
1.37
1.36
1.36

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

574.0
6.0
845.0
6.0
14.0
1793.0
1042.0
1108.0
75.0
111.0
638.0
4424.0
3107.0

42.0
41.0
39.0
37.0
33.0
29.0
25.0
21.0
14.0
6.0
6.0
0.0
0.0

(0.28)
(0.29)
(0.29)
(0.29)
(0.30)
(0.30)
(0.31)
(0.31)
(0.32)
(0.33)
(0.33)
(0.34)
(0.34)

1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.34
1.34
1.33
1.33
1.32
1.32

x medio
desv. Est x (Sx)
n = nmero de datos
yn medio =
Sn =

666.20
883.44
74
0.5557
1.1890

parmetros, segn n
a = Sx / Sn =
u = x-yn*a=

743.01
253.31

0.5557
1.1890

5000
4500
4000
y = 869.18ln(x) - 147.05
R = 0.9909

Q (m3/s))

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1

10

100
Tr (AOS)

1,000

P exc = F (x > X)

F (x X ) 1 e

e y

1
Tr

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que:
1 - e(-e(-y))=

0.01

e(-e(-y))=

0.99

-e(-y)=

-0.01005

e(-y)= 0.0100503
-y =

-4.600149

y = 4.6001492
y=

x-u
a

x=

u + a.y

x=

3671.3

xu
a

1,000

VALORES GUMBEL
Media reducida Yn

n
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100

0
0.4952
0.5230
0.5362
0.5436
0.5485
0.5521
0.5548
0.5569
0.5586
0.5600

1
0.4996
0.5252
0.5371
0.5442
0.5489
0.5524
0.5550
0.5570
0.5587

2
0.5035
0.5268
0.5380
0.5448
0.5493
0.5527
0.5552
0.5572
0.5589

3
0.5070
0.5283
0.5388
0.5453
0.5497
0.5530
0.5555
0.5574
0.5591

4
0.5100
0.5296
0.5396
0.5458
0.5501
0.5533
0.5557
0.5576
0.5592

5
0.5128
0.5309
0.5402
0.5463
0.5504
0.5535
0.5559
0.5578
0.5593

6
0.5157
0.5320
0.5410
0.5468
0.5508
0.5538
0.5561
0.5580
0.5595

7
0.5181
0.5332
0.5418
0.5473
0.5511
0.5540
0.5563
0.5581
0.5596

8
0.5202
0.5343
0.5424
0.5477
0.5515
0.5543
0.5565
0.5583
0.5598

9
0.5220
0.5353
0.5430
0.5481
0.5518
0.5545
0.5567
0.5585
0.5599

3
0.9971
1.0811
1.2260
1.1480
1.1658
1.1782
1.1881
1.1959
1.2026

4
1.0095
1.0864
1.1255
1.1499
1.1667
1.1793
1.1890
1.1967
1.2032

5
1.0206
1.0915
1.1285
1.1519
1.1681
1.1803
1.1898
1.1973
1.2038

6
1.0316
1.0961
1.1313
1.1538
1.1696
1.1814
1.1906
1.1980
1.2044

7
1.0411
1.1004
1.1339
1.1557
1.1708
1.1824
1.1915
1.1987
1.2049

8
1.0493
1.1047
1.1363
1.1574
1.1721
1.1834
1.1923
1.1994
1.2055

9
1.0565
1.1086
1.3880
1.1590
1.1734
1.1844
1.1930
1.2001
1.2060

Desviacin tipica reducida Sn

n
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100

0
0.9496
1.0628
1.1124
1.1413
1.1607
1.1747
1.1854
1.1938
1.2007
1.2065

1
0.9676
1.0696
1.1159
1.1430
1.1623
1.1759
1.1863
1.1945
1.2013

2
0.9833
1.0754
1.1193
1.1458
1.1638
1.1770
1.1873
1.1953
1.2020

ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS

AO
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

SANCHEZ CERRO
860.0
610.0
124.0
135.0
95.0
450.0
1900.0
620.0
438.0
379.0
390.0
39.0
508.0
1525.0

DATOS ORDENADOS
4424.0
3200.0
3107.0
2500.0
2250.0
2220.0
2200.0
1900.0
1793.0
1700.0
1616.0
1530.0
1525.0
1108.0

f(x)
7.040E-06
2.302E-05
2.524E-05
4.654E-05
6.029E-05
6.221E-05
6.353E-05
8.743E-05
9.821E-05
1.088E-04
1.195E-04
1.316E-04
1.324E-04
2.169E-04

F(x)
9.925E-01
9.760E-01
9.738E-01
9.527E-01
9.394E-01
9.376E-01
9.363E-01
9.139E-01
9.040E-01
8.943E-01
8.848E-01
8.740E-01
8.733E-01
8.022E-01

1940
1941
1942

185.0
2220.0
405.0

1042.0
1010.0
980.0

2.356E-04
2.454E-04
2.551E-04

7.873E-01
7.796E-01
7.721E-01

1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972

2250.0
273.0
220.0
134.0
41.0
42.5
1010.0
0.0
0.0
153.0
2200.0
44.0
350.0
1530.0
1700.0
690.0
900.0
81.0
88.0
115.0
37.0
33.0
2500.0
49.0
82.0
21.0
180.0
29.0
545.0
1616.0

900.0
860.0
845.0
845.0
690.0
646.0
638.1
620.0
610.0
574.0
568.0
545.0
508.0
450.0
438.0
405.0
390.0
390.0
388.0
379.0
350.0
273.0
272.0
220.0
185.0
180.0
167.0
153.0
135.0
134.0

2.834E-04
2.990E-04
3.052E-04
3.052E-04
3.802E-04
4.061E-04
4.110E-04
4.226E-04
4.292E-04
4.544E-04
4.588E-04
4.763E-04
5.067E-04
5.610E-04
5.735E-04
6.101E-04
6.281E-04
6.281E-04
6.306E-04
6.419E-04
6.810E-04
8.095E-04
8.115E-04
9.296E-04
1.032E-03
1.049E-03
1.095E-03
1.151E-03
1.234E-03
1.239E-03

7.506E-01
7.389E-01
7.344E-01
7.344E-01
6.816E-01
6.643E-01
6.610E-01
6.535E-01
6.492E-01
6.333E-01
6.306E-01
6.199E-01
6.017E-01
5.708E-01
5.639E-01
5.444E-01
5.351E-01
5.351E-01
5.339E-01
5.282E-01
5.090E-01
4.519E-01
4.511E-01
4.059E-01
3.717E-01
3.665E-01
3.525E-01
3.368E-01
3.154E-01
3.141E-01

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

845.0
58.0
272.0
388.0
646.0
167.0
74.0
45.0
568.0
390.0
3200.0
980.0
112.0
25.0
574.0
6.0
845.0
6.0
14.0
1793.0
1042.0
1108.0
75.0
100.9
638.1
4424.0
3107.0

124.0
115.0
112.0
100.9
95.0
88.0
82.0
81.0
75.0
74.0
58.0
49.0
45.0
44.0
42.5
41.0
39.0
37.0
33.0
29.0
25.0
21.0
14.0
6.0
6.0
1.0
1.0

1.292E-03
1.345E-03
1.364E-03
1.440E-03
1.486E-03
1.545E-03
1.601E-03
1.610E-03
1.673E-03
1.685E-03
1.897E-03
2.056E-03
2.140E-03
2.163E-03
2.198E-03
2.235E-03
2.288E-03
2.344E-03
2.471E-03
2.622E-03
2.805E-03
3.034E-03
3.635E-03
5.275E-03
5.275E-03
1.147E-02
1.147E-02

3.015E-01
2.896E-01
2.856E-01
2.700E-01
2.614E-01
2.508E-01
2.413E-01
2.397E-01
2.299E-01
2.282E-01
1.997E-01
1.819E-01
1.735E-01
1.714E-01
1.681E-01
1.648E-01
1.602E-01
1.556E-01
1.460E-01
1.358E-01
1.250E-01
1.133E-01
9.017E-02
5.583E-02
5.583E-02
2.018E-02
2.018E-02

:Parmetros
Forma: axb> 0
Escala: bsx > 0
x (media)
s2 (varianza)

a
b

666.2
780417.4
0.569
1,171.38

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
--> P exc = 1 / 100 =
--> Pno exc = 1-P exc =

0.01
0.99

x = f ( Pno exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 4121.75762

f(x)
1.4E-02
1.2E-02
1.0E-02
8.0E-03
6.0E-03
4.0E-03
2.0E-03
0.0E+00
0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

F(x)

1.2E+00
1.0E+00
8.0E-01
6.0E-01
4.0E-01
2.0E-01
0.0E+00
0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

4500

4500

5000

5000

Valores de "K", para la distribucin Pearson tipo III

Coeficiente
99
de asimetra
g
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2
-2.2
-2.4
-2.6
-2.8
-3

1.0101
-0.667
-0.714
-0.769
-0.832
-0.905
-0.99
-1.087
-1.197
-1.318
-1.449
-1.558
-1.733
-1.88
-2.029
-2.178
-2.326
-2.472
-2.615
-2.755
-2.891
-3.022
-3.149
-3.271
-3.388
-3.499
-3.605
-3.705
-3.8
-3.889
-3.973
-4.051

Nivel de probabilidad, porcentaje

80
50
20
10
4
Periodo de retorno en aos
1.25
2
5
10
25
-0.636 -0.396
0.42
1.18 2.278
-0.666 -0.384
0.46
1.21 2.275
-0.696 -0.368 0.499 1.238 2.267
-0.725 -0.351 0.537 1.262 2.256
-0.752
-0.33 0.574 1.284
2.24
-0.777 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.219
-0.7999 -0.282 0.643 1.318 2.193
-0.8177 -0.254 0.675 1.329 2.163
-0.8332 -0.225 0.705 1.337 2.128
-0.844 -0.195 0.732
1.34 2.087
-0.852 -0.164 0.758
1.34 2.043
-0.856 -0.132
0.78 1.336 1.993
-0.857 -0.099
0.8 1.328 1.939
-0.855 -0.066 0.816 1.317
1.88
-0.85 -0.033
0.83 1.301 1.818
-0.842
0 0.842 1.282 1.751
-0.83 0.033
0.85 1.258
1.68
-0.816 0.066 0.855 1.232 1.606
-0.8 0.099 0.857
1.2 1.528
-0.78 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.448
-0.758 0.164 0.852 1.128 1.366
-0.732 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.282
-0.705 0.225 0.832 1.041 1.198
-0.675 0.254 0.817 0.994 1.116
-0.643 0.282 0.799 0.945 1.035
-0.609 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.958
-0.574
0.33 0.752 0.844 0.888
-0.537 0.351 0.725 0.795 0.823
-0.499 0.368 0.696 0.747 0.764
-0.46 0.384 0.666 0.702 0.712
-0.42 0.396 0.636
0.66 0.666

50
3.152
3.114
3.071
3.023
2.97
2.912
2.848
2.78
2.706
2.626
2.542
2.453
2.359
2.261
2.159
2.054
1.945
1.834
1.72
1.606
1.492
1.379
1.27
1.166
1.069
0.98
0.9
0.83
0.768
0.714
0.666

100
4.051
3.973
3.889
3.8
3.705
3.605
3.499
3.388
3.271
3.149
3.022
2.891
2.755
2.615
2.472
2.326
2.178
2.029
1.88
1.733
1.588
1.449
1.318
1.197
1.087
0.99
0.905
0.832
0.769
0.714
0.667

-8

-6
y = -0.0191x3 + 0.0034x
R = 0.9998
y = -0.014x3 - 0.0169x2
R = 0.9996

y = -0.009x3 - 0.0322x2
R = 0.9994
y = -0.0026x3 - 0.0413x2
R = 0.9985
y = 0.0014x3 - 0.0355x2
R = 0.9993

y = 0.0041x3 + 2E-15x2
R = 1
y = 0.0014x3 + 0.0355x2
R = 0.9993
y = -0.0193x3 - 0.0036x2
R = 0.9997

K versus g para diferentes Tr

K(Tr) = f (g)
Coeficiente de asimetra, g
-6

-4

-2

Tr = 100

0.0034x2 + 0.7316x + 2.3036

= 0.9998
0.0169x2 + 0.5388x + 2.0339
= 0.9996

0.0322x2 + 0.3497x + 1.7353

= 0.9994
0.0413x2 + 0.1113x + 1.2738
= 0.9985
0.0355x2 - 0.0477x + 0.8391
0.9993

15x2 - 0.1692x + 7E-15

=1
0.0355x2 - 0.0479x - 0.8392
0.9993

Tr = 1.01

0.0036x2 + 0.7332x - 2.3018

= 0.9997

1.0101

1.25

10

25

50

100

-1

-2

-3

-4

coeficiente K

Probabilidad de excedencia F(x)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53

DATOS Emprica
4424.0
0.013
3200.0
0.027
3107.0
0.040
2500.0
0.053
2250.0
0.067
2220.0
0.080
2200.0
0.093
1900.0
0.107
1793.0
0.120
1700.0
0.133
1616.0
0.147
1530.0
0.160
1525.0
0.173
1108.0
0.187
1042.0
0.200
1010.0
0.213
980.0
0.227
900.0
0.240
860.0
0.253
845.0
0.267
845.0
0.280
690.0
0.293
646.0
0.307
638.1
0.320
620.0
0.333
610.0
0.347
574.0
0.360
568.0
0.373
545.0
0.387
508.0
0.400
450.0
0.413
438.0
0.427
405.0
0.440
390.0
0.453
390.0
0.467
388.0
0.480
379.0
0.493
350.0
0.507
273.0
0.520
272.0
0.533
220.0
0.547
185.0
0.560
180.0
0.573
167.0
0.587
153.0
0.600
135.0
0.613
134.0
0.627
124.0
0.640
115.0
0.653
112.0
0.667
100.9
0.680
95.0
0.693
88.0
0.707

Normal

LN2

LN3

0.000
0.002
0.003
0.019
0.037
0.039
0.041
0.081
0.101
0.121
0.141
0.164
0.165
0.309
0.335
0.349
0.361
0.396
0.413
0.420
0.420
0.489
0.509
0.513
0.521
0.525
0.542
0.544
0.555
0.571
0.597
0.602
0.616
0.623
0.623
0.624
0.627
0.640
0.672
0.672
0.693
0.707
0.709
0.714
0.719
0.726
0.727
0.730
0.734
0.735
0.739
0.741
0.744

0.050
0.072
0.074
0.093
0.103
0.104
0.105
0.121
0.127
0.133
0.140
0.146
0.147
0.191
0.201
0.206
0.210
0.224
0.232
0.235
0.235
0.271
0.283
0.285
0.291
0.294
0.305
0.308
0.316
0.330
0.354
0.360
0.376
0.384
0.384
0.385
0.390
0.407
0.461
0.462
0.509
0.547
0.553
0.570
0.589
0.615
0.617
0.633
0.649
0.654
0.675
0.687
0.702

0.025
0.043
0.045
0.062
0.072
0.073
0.074
0.090
0.097
0.104
0.111
0.118
0.119
0.170
0.182
0.188
0.194
0.211
0.220
0.224
0.224
0.269
0.285
0.288
0.295
0.298
0.313
0.316
0.326
0.344
0.376
0.383
0.404
0.414
0.414
0.415
0.422
0.443
0.510
0.511
0.567
0.610
0.617
0.635
0.656
0.684
0.686
0.702
0.718
0.723
0.744
0.755
0.768

Gumbel
0.004
0.019
0.021
0.047
0.066
0.068
0.070
0.103
0.118
0.133
0.148
0.164
0.165
0.271
0.292
0.303
0.313
0.342
0.357
0.363
0.363
0.426
0.445
0.449
0.457
0.461
0.478
0.480
0.491
0.508
0.536
0.542
0.558
0.565
0.565
0.566
0.570
0.584
0.622
0.623
0.649
0.666
0.668
0.675
0.682
0.690
0.691
0.696
0.700
0.702
0.707
0.710
0.713

Diferencia Delta D
Gamma
0.008
0.024
0.026
0.047
0.061
0.062
0.064
0.086
0.096
0.106
0.115
0.126
0.127
0.198
0.213
0.220
0.228
0.249
0.261
0.266
0.266
0.318
0.336
0.339
0.346
0.351
0.367
0.369
0.380
0.398
0.429
0.436
0.456
0.465
0.465
0.466
0.472
0.491
0.548
0.549
0.594
0.628
0.634
0.647
0.663
0.685
0.686
0.699
0.710
0.714
0.730
0.739
0.749

Normal

LN2

0.01332
0.02460
0.03714
0.03438
0.03016
0.04070
0.05207
0.02540
0.01893
0.01237
0.00550
0.00410
0.00783
0.12184
0.13528
0.13525
0.13456
0.15564
0.15985
0.15314
0.13981
0.19592
0.20246
0.19269
0.18752
0.17870
0.18156
0.17093
0.16790
0.17106
0.18334
0.17525
0.17626
0.16940
0.15606
0.14359
0.13412
0.13314
0.15187
0.13895
0.14658
0.14702
0.13563
0.12732
0.11935
0.11285
0.09989
0.09031
0.08033
0.06811
0.05888
0.04771
0.03694

0.03713
0.04536
0.03429
0.03940
0.03614
0.02415
0.01172
0.01393
0.00716
0.00008
0.00711
0.01360
0.02652
0.00462
0.00070
0.00775
0.01630
0.01576
0.02148
0.03183
0.04516
0.02264
0.02375
0.03477
0.04267
0.05291
0.05453
0.06582
0.07105
0.07041
0.05908
0.06682
0.06380
0.06917
0.08250
0.09475
0.10310
0.09940
0.05860
0.07113
0.03761
0.01275
0.02008
0.01704
0.01140
0.00202
0.00974
0.00677
0.00450
0.01242
0.00468
0.00610
0.00457

54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74

82.0
81.0
75.0
74.0
58.0
49.0
45.0
44.0
42.0
41.0
39.0
37.0
33.0
29.0
25.0
21.0
14.0
6.0
6.0
0.0
0.0

0.720
0.733
0.747
0.760
0.773
0.787
0.800
0.813
0.827
0.840
0.853
0.867
0.880
0.893
0.907
0.920
0.933
0.947
0.960
0.973
0.987

0.746
0.746
0.748
0.749
0.754
0.758
0.759
0.759
0.760
0.760
0.761
0.762
0.763
0.765
0.766
0.767
0.770
0.773
0.773
0.775
0.775

0.716
0.718
0.732
0.734
0.777
0.804
0.816
0.820
0.825
0.830
0.837
0.844
0.859
0.874
0.890
0.907
0.939
0.978
0.978
0.999
0.999

0.780
0.782
0.795
0.797
0.831
0.852
0.861
0.863
0.867
0.870
0.875
0.879
0.889
0.899
0.908
0.918
0.935
0.953
0.953
0.965
0.965

0.716
0.717
0.720
0.720
0.728
0.732
0.734
0.734
0.735
0.736
0.737
0.738
0.740
0.741
0.743
0.745
0.748
0.752
0.752
0.755
0.755

0.759
0.760
0.770
0.772
0.800
0.818
0.826
0.829
0.832
0.835
0.840
0.844
0.854
0.864
0.875
0.887
0.910
0.944
0.944
0.980
0.980

0.02579
0.01282
0.00166
0.01132
0.01891
0.02905
0.04097
0.05395
0.06676
0.07956
0.09220
0.10483
0.11676
0.12870
0.14064
0.15259
0.16351
0.17410
0.18743
0.19872
0.21206

0.00448
0.01551
0.01462
0.02551
0.00348
0.01703
0.01650
0.00645
0.00188
0.01012
0.01653
0.02278
0.02142
0.01932
0.01643
0.01268
0.00599
0.03157
0.01824
0.02537
0.01203

0.21206

0.10310

Rechazada Aceptada

0.1581
0.158097

Diferencia Delta D
LN3
0.01209
0.01628
0.00494
0.00864
0.00518
0.00682
0.01924
0.01654
0.02288
0.02945
0.03604
0.04176
0.05463
0.01618
0.01815
0.02554
0.03302
0.02927
0.03314
0.04275
0.05609
0.02423
0.02201
0.03239
0.03879
0.04817
0.04653
0.05725
0.06021
0.05566
0.03747
0.04368
0.03622
0.03946
0.05280
0.06475
0.07179
0.06371
0.01018
0.02253
0.01998
0.05048
0.04389
0.04870
0.05597
0.07085
0.05915
0.06247
0.06472
0.05671
0.06367
0.06150
0.06178

Gumbel
0.00969
0.00789
0.01875
0.00588
0.00087
0.01158
0.02312
0.00338
0.00170
0.00035
0.00099
0.00421
0.00811
0.08467
0.09245
0.08981
0.08677
0.10216
0.10389
0.09633
0.08299
0.13293
0.13872
0.12887
0.12357
0.11471
0.11767
0.10708
0.10434
0.10826
0.12246
0.11489
0.11751
0.11147
0.09814
0.08578
0.07684
0.07771
0.10237
0.08954
0.10194
0.10589
0.09503
0.08809
0.08163
0.07711
0.06426
0.05581
0.04686
0.03498
0.02703
0.01655
0.00659

Gamma
0.00580
0.00269
0.01378
0.00602
0.00608
0.01758
0.02965
0.02055
0.02396
0.02768
0.03143
0.03398
0.04665
0.01114
0.01273
0.00709
0.00126
0.00944
0.00775
0.00105
0.01438
0.02511
0.02906
0.01896
0.01317
0.00409
0.00666
0.00394
0.00652
0.00167
0.01591
0.00939
0.01557
0.01153
0.00181
0.01388
0.02149
0.01565
0.02813
0.01561
0.04740
0.06833
0.06019
0.06079
0.06318
0.07129
0.05919
0.05851
0.05704
0.04777
0.04999
0.04528
0.04255

0.06042
0.04911
0.04810
0.03685
0.05796
0.06490
0.06077
0.04976
0.03991
0.03008
0.02144
0.01283
0.00900
0.00523
0.00152
0.00218
0.00129
0.00673
0.00660
0.00871
0.02204
0.07179
Aceptada

0.1581
0.158097

0.00385
0.01670
0.02715
0.04001
0.04569
0.05474
0.06617
0.07903
0.09142
0.10428
0.11666
0.12905
0.14050
0.15195
0.16340
0.17485
0.18491
0.19451
0.20785
0.21839
0.23173

0.03865
0.02692
0.02344
0.01178
0.02701
0.03143
0.02649
0.01531
0.00524
0.00477
0.01358
0.02228
0.02599
0.02915
0.03164
0.03331
0.02350
0.00249
0.01583
0.00649
0.00685

0.23173

0.07129

Rechazada Aceptada