Working Papers
State Failure Task Force Report
30 November 1995
Prepared by:
Daniel C. Esty, Yale University
Jack A. Goldstone, University of California, Davis
Ted Robert Gurr, University of Maryland, College Park
Pamela T, Surko, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
Alan N. Unger, SAICWorking Papers
State Failure Task Force Report
This working paper was produced under contract for the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence
to stimulate analytic thinking and debate. It is not based on intelligence reporting and
does not represent the official view of the US Government, the US Intelligence Community,
or the Central Intelligence Agency.
+The study represents an empirically driven effort to identify factors associated with state
failure, It examines a broad range of demographic, societal, economic, environmental, and
political indicators influencing state stability and applies statistical methods to develop
a model.
+ The CIA commissioned the study to seek broad participation by recognized scholars
and data collection and analytic methods experts in universities and research institutes. It is
being issued to stimulate discussion, debate, and additional research by scholars
* Because the model is based on historical data, it has limitations in looking forward.
The CIA plans to continue the work, with the assistance of outside experts, in an attempt
to refine and improve the model for use as an analytic tool.
30 November 1995
Prepared by:
Daniel C. Esty, Yale University
Jack A. Goldstone, University of California, Davis
Ted Robert Gurr, University of Maryland
Pamela T. Surko, SAIC
Alan N. Unger, SAIC