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Working Papers State Failure Task Force Report 30 November 1995 Prepared by: Daniel C. Esty, Yale University Jack A. Goldstone, University of California, Davis Ted Robert Gurr, University of Maryland, College Park Pamela T, Surko, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) Alan N. Unger, SAIC Working Papers State Failure Task Force Report This working paper was produced under contract for the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence to stimulate analytic thinking and debate. It is not based on intelligence reporting and does not represent the official view of the US Government, the US Intelligence Community, or the Central Intelligence Agency. +The study represents an empirically driven effort to identify factors associated with state failure, It examines a broad range of demographic, societal, economic, environmental, and political indicators influencing state stability and applies statistical methods to develop a model. + The CIA commissioned the study to seek broad participation by recognized scholars and data collection and analytic methods experts in universities and research institutes. It is being issued to stimulate discussion, debate, and additional research by scholars * Because the model is based on historical data, it has limitations in looking forward. The CIA plans to continue the work, with the assistance of outside experts, in an attempt to refine and improve the model for use as an analytic tool. 30 November 1995 Prepared by: Daniel C. Esty, Yale University Jack A. Goldstone, University of California, Davis Ted Robert Gurr, University of Maryland Pamela T. Surko, SAIC Alan N. Unger, SAIC