1. 2.

Candidate and Governorate Votes Votes by Candidate Affiliation

3.
a) 4. a) c)

Parliamentary vs Presidential Elections

Comparing MB Support Shifts Demographic Analysis of Votes Morsi Sabahi b) Shafiq b) Voter Participation Rates

d) Aboul Fotouh
e) Moussa

@melhoshy

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Demographic Analysis - Overview

Candidate Votes vs Governorate Demographics

Illiteracy Rural Population Overall Unemployment Female Unemployment Female Education HDI Percent Voting Yes in Referendum

Morsi Shafiq
Sabbahi Aboul Fotouh Moussa

+ +

+ +

+/

+/

+/

+
+/

+/

+/

How to read the chart: Governorates with higher illiteracy rates were more likely to vote for Morsi. Governorates with higher HDI or female education were less likely to vote for Morsi.

Blue Box denotes a particularly strong correlation

Key:

Positive Correlation

+/

No Correlation

Negative Correlation

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Demographic Analysis - Explanation

Overview of Analysis
Methodology
1. Pulled candidate's vote results and demographic variable (from CAPMAS) on a governorate-level basis 2. Ran statistical analysis to generate the correlation coefficient (called "R" in statistics) 3. Ran another analysis to generate the coefficient of determination ("R2) 4. Based on common statistics classifications, determined whether the correlation between the votes and that specific candidate: none, low, medium or high

Discussion
The Correlation Coefficient (r) measures the strength and the direction of a linear relationship between two variables Additionally, the coefficient of determination (r squared) which gives the proportion of variance in candidate votes that is predicted by a demographic characteristic - was also looked at to validate the conclusions Correlation strength is based on use for social sciences. Scientists measuring physical laws/properties may require at least an r of 0.9 to determine any type of correlation; however, social sciences have more leeway given that there are many more complicating factors to be accounted for. It is important to always remember that correlation does not imply causation (i.e. does not automatically imply that the demographic variable is the cause for vote results) however, it is a necessary step in determining causation and indicates that there may be benefit from further investigation (i.e. it is a hint that a demographic variable causes people to vote for a certain candidate)

Correlation None Small Medium Strong

Correlation Coefficient
Negative Positive 0.09 to 0.0 0.0 to 0.09 0.3 to 0.1 0.1 to 0.3 0.5 to 0.3 0.3 to 0.5 1.0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1.0

Please remember that correlation does not imply causation

@melhoshy www.ducoht.org

Demographic Analysis - Examples

Illustration of Strong vs Medium Correlation

Strong Correlation: Sabbahi Votes vs Illiteracy Rate 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Medium Correlation: Morsi Votes vs Illiteracy Rate 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

20%
15% 10% 5% 0%

R = -0.71 R2 = 0.50

R = -0.46 R2 = 0.50

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Demographic Analysis - Overview

Summary of Key Findings Sabbahi seems to have taken many of the votes that would have gone to Moussa based on the fact that they share the exact same profile with regards to demographic characteristics. It appears the Islamist push was a large reason that the referendum went through given that both Morsi and Aboul Fotouh correlate with a high percent voting yes in referendum. Additionally, apparently the military effect on that result was not as high given no Shafiq vote correlation. Sabbahi has a very specific voter base it seems literate, urban, educated and prorevolution (the last one based on his negative correlation with referendum yes votes). Additionally, he seems to have garnered the sympathies of the unemployed. Shafiq on the other hand appears to have a broad base with regards to demographic variables several demographic variables showing no correlation with his vote percentage (additionally, only rurality was strongly correlated) It appears that the get out the vote campaigns of Shafiq and Morsi worked as they are the only two candidates to positively correlate with rurality, (both strongly correlated) whereas all other candidates showed negative correlation with rurality.

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Demographic Analysis - Overview

Notes for Candidate and Demographics Correlations

The demographic statistics are based on reporting by CAPMAS, some of which may not be the most accurate (for example, male unemployment ranges between 4%-14% which is unlikely to be very accurate and may explain the lack of any strong correlations) The CAPMAS data is only available on a per governorate basis however, governorates are relatively large and do not exhibit uniform demographics across the whole governorate Given that demographic data is only available on a governorate basis, the vote tallies are also based on governorate level however, districts within the same governorate often exhibit disparate voting (i.e one district in Cairo may have voted for Shafiq in the majority with another district voting for Morsi) A more refined analysis with more granular data would likely produce even stronger correlations than witnessed on that done based on governorate level For Sabbahi, I have excluded Kafr El Sheikh from the correlation analysis as he was MP that explains his high performance there, the demographic characteristics of the governorate are unlikely to have had a large impact (and, given that assumption, they would skew the rest of the data)
@melhoshy www.ducoht.org

1. 2.

Candidate and Governorate Votes Votes by Candidate Affiliation

3.
a) 4. a) c)

Parliamentary vs Presidential Elections

Comparing MB Support Shifts Demographic Analysis of Votes Morsi Sabahi b) Shafiq b) Voter Participation Rates

d) Aboul Fotouh
e) Moussa

@melhoshy

www.ducoht.org

Demographic Analysis Morsi (Illiteracy)

45%
40%

R = 0.4013

Morsi Votes vs Illiteracy

35% 30% 25% 20%

15%

10%
5%

0%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

@melhoshy

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Demographic Analysis Morsi (Rural Population)

45% R = 0.258

Morsi Votes vs Rural Population

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

@melhoshy

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Demographic Analysis Morsi (Total Unemployment)

45%

R = 0.0618 40%

Morsi Votes vs Overall Unemployment

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

@melhoshy

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Demographic Analysis Morsi (Female Unemployment)

Morsi Votes vs Female Unemployment

45%

R = 0.0192 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

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Demographic Analysis Morsi (Female Education)

Morsi Votes vs Female Education

45% R = 0.2184

40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

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Demographic Analysis Morsi (Human Development Index - HDI)

Morsi Votes vs HDI

50% R = 0.4086 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0.7 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.8

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Demographic Analysis Morsi (Referendum)

Morsi Votes vs Percent Voting Yes for Referendum

50%

R = 0.1964 45%
40%

35% 30%
25%

20% 15%
10%

5% 0%
60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%

@melhoshy

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1. 2.

Candidate and Governorate Votes Votes by Candidate Affiliation

3.
a) 4. a) c)

Parliamentary vs Presidential Elections

Comparing MB Support Shifts Demographic Analysis of Votes Morsi Sabahi b) Shafiq b) Voter Participation Rates

d) Aboul Fotouh
e) Moussa

@melhoshy

www.ducoht.org

Demographic Analysis Shafiq (Illiteracy)

60% R = 0.042 50%

Shafiq Vote vs Illiteracy Rate

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

@melhoshy

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Demographic Analysis Shafiq (Rural Population)

60%
R = 0.1322

Shafiq Vote vs Rural Population

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

@melhoshy

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Demographic Analysis Shafiq (Total Unemployment)

60%

Shafiq Vote vs Overall Unemployment

R = 0.001

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

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Demographic Analysis Shafiq (Female Unemployment)

Shafiq Vote vs Female Unemployment

60%

R = 0.0017
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

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Demographic Analysis Shafiq (Female Education)

Shafiq Vote vs Female Education

60%

R = 0.0061 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

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Demographic Analysis Shafiq (Human Development Index - HDI)

60%
R = 0.0583

Shafiq Vote vs HDI

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
0.7 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.8

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Demographic Analysis Shafiq (Referendum)

60%

R = 0.0048

Shafiq Vote vs Referendum

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%

@melhoshy

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1. 2.

Candidate and Governorate Votes Votes by Candidate Affiliation

3.
a) 4. a) c)

Parliamentary vs Presidential Elections

Comparing MB Support Shifts Demographic Analysis of Votes Morsi Sabahi b) Shafiq b) Voter Participation Rates

d) Aboul Fotouh
e) Moussa

@melhoshy

www.ducoht.org

Demographic Analysis Sabahi (Illiteracy)

Sabahi Voes vs Illiteracy

45% R = 0.4998

40%
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

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Demographic Analysis Sabahi (Rural Population)

Rural Percent
45% R = 0.4839

40%
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

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Demographic Analysis Sabahi (Total Unemployment)

Overall Unemployment
45% R = 0.054

40%
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

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Demographic Analysis Sabahi (Female Unemployment)

Sabahi Votes vs Female Unemployment

45%

40%
R = 0.0042 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

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Demographic Analysis Sabahi (Female Education)

45% R = 0.3828
40%

Sabahi Votes vs Female Education

35% 30% 25% 20%

15%

10%
5%

0%
70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

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Demographic Analysis Sabahi (Human Development Index - HDI)

45% R = 0.4328
40%

Sabahi Votes vs HDI

35% 30% 25% 20%

15%

10%
5%

0%
0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.85

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Demographic Analysis Sabahi (Referendum)

45%

Sabahi Votes vs Percent Voting Yes in Referendum

R = 0.3465

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

@melhoshy

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1. 2.

Candidate and Governorate Votes Votes by Candidate Affiliation

3.
a) 4. a) c)

Parliamentary vs Presidential Elections

Comparing MB Support Shifts Demographic Analysis of Votes Morsi Sabahi b) Shafiq b) Voter Participation Rates

d) Aboul Fotouh
e) Moussa

@melhoshy

www.ducoht.org

Demographic Analysis Aboul Fotouh (Illiteracy)

50% R = 0.0433 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Aboul Fotouh vs Illiteracy

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Demographic Analysis Aboul Fotouh (Rural Population)

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% R = 0.0105

Aboul Fotouh vs Rural Population

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Demographic Analysis Aboul Fotouh (Total Unemployment)

Aboul Fotouh vs Overall Unemployment

50% 45% R = 0.0594 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

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Demographic Analysis Aboul Fotouh (Female Unemployment)

Aboul Fotouh vs Female Unemployment

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% R = 0.0367

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Demographic Analysis Aboul Fotouh (Female Education)

Aboul Fotouh vs Female Education

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% R = 0.3082

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Demographic Analysis Aboul Fotouh (Human Development Index - HDI)

Aboul Fotouh vs HDI

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.85 R = 0.0188

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Demographic Analysis Aboul Fotouh (Referendum)

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 65% 67% 69% 71% 73% 75% 77% 79% 81% 83% 85% R = 0.0932

Aboul Fotouh vs Percent Voting Yes in Referendum

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1. 2.

Candidate and Governorate Votes Votes by Candidate Affiliation

3.
a) 4. a) c)

Parliamentary vs Presidential Elections

Comparing MB Support Shifts Demographic Analysis of Votes Morsi Sabahi b) Shafiq b) Voter Participation Rates

d) Aboul Fotouh
e) Moussa

@melhoshy

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Demographic Analysis Moussa (Illiteracy)

Moussa Votes vs Illiteracy

30%

R = 0.4027

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

@melhoshy

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Demographic Analysis Moussa (Rural Population)

30%

Moussa Votes vs Rural Population

25%

20%

R = 0.1641

15%

10%

5%

0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

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Demographic Analysis Moussa (Total Unemployment)

30% R = 0.0347

Moussa Votes vs Overall Unemployment

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

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Demographic Analysis Moussa (Female Unemployment)

Moussa Votes vs Female Unemployment

30% R = 0.0027

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

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Demographic Analysis Moussa (Female Education)

30%

Moussa Votes vs Female Education

R = 0.0349

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

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Demographic Analysis Moussa (Human Development Index - HDI)

Moussa Votes vs HDI

30%

R = 0.329
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.85

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Demographic Analysis Moussa (Referendum)

30%

R = 0.0503

Moussa Votes vs Percent Voting Yes in Referendum

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%

@melhoshy

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