National Defense Intelligence College Paper: Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis - Sherman Kent, NSA, JFK, Cuban Missile Crisis, Inductive, Deductive, Abductive Reasoning
5/5
()
Currently unavailable
Currently unavailable
About this ebook
This unique and informative paper was produced by the National Intelligence University / National Defense Intelligence College. Analysts and analysts alone create intelligence. Although technological marvels assist analysts by cataloguing and presenting data, information and evidence in new ways, they do not do analysis. To be most effective, analysts need an overarching, reflective framework to add structured reasoning to sound, intuitive thinking. "Critical thinking" provides such a framework and goes further, positively influencing the entire intelligence analysis process. Analysts who adopt critical thinking stand to improve their analyses. This paper defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entire intelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit.
Topics and subjects include: Inductive, deductive, and abductive reasoning; noosphere, Cuban missile crisis, Cassandrian approach; Penkosky, Sherman Kent; Fidel Castro; John F. Kennedy; Nikita Khrushchev; Evidentiary assessment; NSA.
Contents: Introduction: How Do People Reason * What Is Critical Thinking? * Defining Critical Thinking * Standards for Critical Thinking * Skill-Based Definitions * A Disposition to Think Critically * The Role of Questions * Pseudo-Critical Thinking * What Can Be Learned from the Past? * Thinking Critically about Cuba * Deploying the Missiles * Assessing the Implications * Between Dogmatism and Refutation * Lacking: Disconfirmation * The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis * Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context * Ten Years Later, They Meet Again * Judgment: Critical Thinking Would Have Made a Difference * How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking? * The Poor Record * Assessing Evidence * Facilitating Evidentiary Assessment * Embracing a Methodology * Creating Better Inferences * Producing Intelligence * How can Analysts be Taught to Think Critically? * Critical Thinking Education * Outside the Intelligence Community * Critical Thinking Education * Inside the Intelligence Community * Implications of Teaching Critical Thinking * Evaluating Teaching Models * Encouraging Analysts to Think Critically * Persuading to Improve Analysis * How Does Critical Thinking Transform? * Transforming Intelligence Corporations * Learning from Early Adopters * The Costs and Benefits of Thinking Critically * Validation * What Other Points of View Exist? * What Does the Future Hold? * Conclusion
The world in which intelligence analysts work has changed dramatically over the 67 years since the beginning of the Second World War. Adversaries have shifted from large armies arrayed on battlefields to individuals lurking in the shadows or in plain sight. Further, plagues and pandemics, as well as floods and famines, pose threats not only to national stability but even to human existence. To paraphrase a Chinese curse, we certainly live in interesting times.
Our times demand fresh, critical reasoning on the part of those tasked to assess and warn about threats as well as those tasked to act on those threats. Education in the bases and practices of intelligence foraging and sensemaking - often called intelligence collection and analysis - is a means by which this can be accomplished. Indeed, the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 legislates improved education for intelligence analysis. But, that education is not specifically defined. This volume provides a framework for one area of the act's educational requirement: improving how analysts think - and by extension, how policymakers act. It asserts that people who are skilled critical thinkers are better able to cope with interesting times than those who are not.
Progressive Management
Progressive Management: For over a quarter of a century, our news, educational, technical, scientific, and medical publications have made unique and valuable references accessible to all people. Our imprints include PM Medical Health News, Advanced Professional Education and News Service, Auto Racing Analysis, and World Spaceflight News. Many of our publications synthesize official information with original material. They are designed to provide a convenient user-friendly reference work to uniformly present authoritative knowledge that can be rapidly read, reviewed or searched. Vast archives of important data that might otherwise remain inaccessible are available for instant review no matter where you are. The e-book format makes a great reference work and educational tool. There is no other reference book that is as convenient, comprehensive, thoroughly researched, and portable - everything you need to know, from renowned experts you trust. Our e-books put knowledge at your fingertips, and an expert in your pocket!
Related to National Defense Intelligence College Paper
Related ebooks
NeuroLeadership: How The World's Best Leaders Use Psychology To Win Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsNeuroLeadership: How The World's Best Leaders Use Psychology To Win Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsAssume Nothing: Using Transformational Conversation to Overcome Unconscious Bias Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsTextbook Rationality Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsCritical Thinking: Improve Your Academic Standards and Objectivity Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Information Warfare: The Lost Tradecraft Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Wisest One in the Room: How You Can Benefit from Social Psychology's Most Powerful Insights Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5The Emotional Intelligence Quick Book: Everything You Need to Know to Put Your EQ to Work Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Critical Thinking: The Skills and Psychology of Questioning the Obvious Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Critical Thinking: The Concept and Power of Thinking Critically Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Critical Thinking: Common Questions, Answers, and Examples Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Critical Thinking: Fallacies, Benefits, and Other Crucial Aspects Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Ways of Knowing in HCI Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5What Was I Thinking?: The Subconscious and Decision-Making Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsStrategies of Genius: Volume I Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Choice Hacking: How To Use Psychology And Behavioral Science To Create An Experience That Sings Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions Happen Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Nine Intelligences Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Art of Analyzing People: How to Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsIntuition: The Art of Controlling and Mastering Your Intuitive Skills Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSearching For Truth: Analyzing Critical Issues, #2 Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsCollaborative Intelligence: Using Teams to Solve Hard Problems Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsHow To Analyze people Ultimate Guide: Learn Psychology, Body Language, Perception, Types of Personalities & Universal Rules Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsReflections on Intelligence Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings
Wars & Military For You
The Art of War Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Killing the SS: The Hunt for the Worst War Criminals in History Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Sun Tzu's The Art of War: Bilingual Edition Complete Chinese and English Text Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Resistance: The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Masters of the Air: America's Bomber Boys Who Fought the Air War Against Nazi Germany Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5How to Hide an Empire: A History of the Greater United States Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Last Kingdom Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5A Daily Creativity Journal Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Band of Brothers: E Company, 506th Regiment, 101st Airborne from Normandy to Hitler's Eagle's Nest Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Ordinary Men: Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Blitzed: Drugs in the Third Reich Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Unacknowledged: An Expose of the World's Greatest Secret Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Making of the Atomic Bomb Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Only Plane in the Sky: An Oral History of 9/11 Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Faithful Spy: Dietrich Bonhoeffer and the Plot to Kill Hitler Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Washington: The Indispensable Man Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The God Delusion Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Art of War & Other Classics of Eastern Philosophy Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Unit 731: Testimony Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5They Thought They Were Free: The Germans, 1933–45 Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Heart of Everything That Is: The Untold Story of Red Cloud, An American Legend Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Forgotten Highlander: An Incredible WWII Story of Survival in the Pacific Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The History of the Peloponnesian War: With linked Table of Contents Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5About Face: The Odyssey of an American Warrior Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5
Reviews for National Defense Intelligence College Paper
1 rating0 reviews