Trump’s Claims Don’t Add Up

Summary

In touting Republican tax bills, President Donald Trump made several claims that don’t add up.

• The nation’s real gross domestic product grew 4.6 percent and 5.2 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2014, respectively. But Trump falsely said that the 3.3 percent growth in the third quarter this year was “the largest increase in many years.”
• Trump again wrongly claimed that the tax bills would be the “biggest tax cut in the history of our country.” There have been larger cuts, both as a percentage of gross domestic product and in inflation-adjusted dollars.
• The president repeated a dubious claim that “middle-class families” would see their wages go up “around $4,000.” His economic advisers say that could happen after eight years if the economy grows at high annual rates. But congressional economic experts don’t expect that to happen.
• Trump misleadingly said that U.S. corporate taxes “are 60 percent higher” than the average in the developed world. The statutory rate is that much higher than the OECD average, but the effective rate that corporations actually pay is in line with the world average.
• The wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria have cost $1.52 trillion, says the Defense Department. But Trump inflated the figure to “almost $7 trillion.”
• The president’s proposed fiscal 2018 budget cuts domestic spending, and yet he claimed, “We’re going to start spending here.”
• The nation’s job growth of 2 million between October 2016 and October 2017 was less than the growth in each of the previous five years. Yet Trump claimed that the gain since his election was “a lot better … than anybody ever even thought possible.”
• Trump said that farmers could have gone to jail under the Obama administration if they “touch” a “little puddle” on their land. He was referring to a 2015 environmental rule, but that rule explicitly excludes puddles from regulation.

Analysis

In a in St. Charles, Missouri, on Nov. 29, Trump praised congressional GOP efforts to overhaul the nation’s individual and corporate income taxes. As the president said, its tax bill, and the president is hoping for a “successful vote in the Senate this week.”