Tasa Incremento anual Propuesta Alcalda

Inflacin Anual Proyectada

Tasa de Oportunidad*
Valor Promedio Multa (2014)
Comparendos da esperados (100%)

6.54%
4.50%
12%
$294,800
792

Nota: El escenario 4 es el que propone la ad

Point), sin que sea claro por qu parten de l

crecimiento de los ingresos a una tasa const

que del 100% recaudado, el RUNT toma el 1

Municipio 40% - Concesionario 60%

Cifras en Millones de Pesos

Ao 0
INVERSION INICIAL
Ingresos Estimados Totales - Tasa incremento 6,54%
Escenario 1 (792 comparendos diarios - 100% efectivos)
Escenario 2 (554 comparendos diarios, 70% efectivos )
Escenario 3 (396 comparendos diarios, 50% efectivos)
Escenario 4 (116,5 comparendos diarios, 14.7% efectivos)

5,644
85,221
59,612
32,281
12,535

RUNT (10%)
Escenario 1
Escenario 2
Escenario 3
Escenario 4
Ingresos Brutos para el Concesionario
Ingresos para el Concesionario (Escenario 1)
Ingresos para el Concesionario (Escenario 2)
Ingresos para el Concesionario (Escenario 3)
Ingresos para el Concesionario (Escenario 4)

8522
5961
3228
1253

(5,644)
(5,644)
(5,644)
(5,644)

EGRESOS DEL PROYECTO

Egresos Recurrentes Concesionario (Nmina) - IPC 4.5% (P)
Impuestos Escenario 1 - 25%
Impuestos Escenario 2 - 25%
Impuestos Escenario 3 - 25%
Impuestos Escenario 4 - 25%
Depreciacin (el proyecto no define los activos, por lo tanto no se
puede calcular la depreciacin)
Otros egresos (licencias, seguros, etc)

Flujo de Caja
Flujo de Caja Escenario 1
Flujo de Caja Escenario 2
Flujo de Caja Escenario 3
Flujo de Caja Escenario 4

Ao 1

46,019
32,190
17,432
6,769

1,071
11,505
8,048
4,358
1,692
-

(5,644)
(5,644)
(5,644)
(5,644)

34,514
24,143
13,074
5,076

Valor Presente Neto Calculado - Tasa de Oportunidad 12%*

VPN Escenario 1
VPN Escenario 2
VPN Escenario 3
VPN Escenario 4

$ 351,642.08
$ 309,190.72
$ 130,067.29
$ 47,422.60

Tasa Interna de Retorno TIR

TIR Escenario 1
TIR Escenario 2
TIR Escenario 3
TIR Escenario 4

618%
438%
238%
96%

Tasa Interna de Retorno TIR - Antes de Impuestos

TIR Escenario 1
TIR Escenario 2
TIR Escenario 3
TIR Escenario 4

822%
577%
315%
126%

enario 4 es el que propone la administracin (ver presentacin Power

ue sea claro por qu parten de la cifra de 12.535, o por qu proyectan el

de los ingresos a una tasa constante del 6,54%. El Modelo propuesto indica

% recaudado, el RUNT toma el 10%, y el monto restante se reparte:

0% - Concesionario 60%

Ao 2

90,794
63,510
34,392
13,354

9079
6351
3439
1335

Ao 3

96,732
67,664
36,641
14,228

9673
6766
3664
1423

Ao 4

Ao 5

Ao 6

Ao 7

Ao 8

103,058
72,089
39,037
15,158

109,798
76,803
41,590
16,150

116,979
81,826
44,310
17,206

124,630
87,178
47,208
18,331

132,781
92,879
50,296
19,530

10306
7209
3904
1516

10980
7680
4159
1615

11698
8183
4431
1721

12463
8718
4721
1833

13278
9288
5030
1953

49,029
34,295
18,572
7,211

52,235
36,538
19,786
7,683

55,652
38,928
21,080
8,185

59,291
41,474
22,459
8,721

63,169
44,186
23,928
9,291

67,300
47,076
25,492
9,899

71,701
50,155
27,160
10,546

1,119
12,257
8,574
4,643
1,803

1,170
13,059
9,135
4,947
1,921

1,222
13,913
9,732
5,270
2,046

1,277
14,823
10,368
5,615
2,180

1,335
15,792
11,047
5,982
2,323

1,395
16,825
11,769
6,373
2,475

1,457
17,925
12,539
6,790
2,637

36,772
25,177
13,929
5,408

39,177
35,467
14,840
5,762

41,739
37,857
15,810
6,139

44,468
40,403
16,844
6,541

47,377
43,115
17,946
6,968

50,475
46,005
19,119
7,424

53,776
49,084
20,370
7,910

*Tasa de Oportunidad: La Tasa de Oportunidad es la tasa que se utiliza para

determinar el valor actual neto de los flujos futuros de caja delproyecto y es la
rentabilidad mnima que se le debe exigir el proyecto para renunciar a un uso
alternativo de los recursos en otro proyecto.
* TIR: Se llama tasa interna de rendimiento porque supone que el dinero que se
gana ao a ao se reinvierte en su totalidad. Es decir es la tasa de rendimiento
generada en su totalidad en el interior de la empresapor medio de la reinversin. Si
la TIR es mayor que la tasa de oportunidad, se acepta la inversin, si la tasa es igual
es indiferente, si es menor, no se acepta

Ao 9

141,464
98,954
53,585
20,807

14146
9895
5358
2081

Ao 10

150,716
105,425
57,089
22,168

15072
10543
5709
2217

Ao 11

160,573
112,320
60,823
23,618

16057
11232
6082
2362

Ao 12

171,074
119,666
64,801
25,162

17107
11967
6480
2516

Ao 13

182,263
127,492
69,039
26,808

18226
12749
6904
2681

Ao 14

194,183
135,830
73,554
28,561

19418
13583
7355
2856

Ao 15

206,882
144,713
78,364
30,429

20688
14471
7836
3043

76,391
53,435
28,936
11,236

81,387
56,930
30,828
11,971

86,709
60,653
32,844
12,754

92,380
64,619
34,993
13,588

98,422
68,846
37,281
14,476

104,859
73,348
39,719
15,423

111,716
78,145
42,317
16,432

1,523
19,098
13,359
7,234
2,809

1,592
20,347
14,232
7,707
2,993

1,663
21,677
15,163
8,211
3,188

1,738
23,095
16,155
8,748
3,397

1,816
24,605
17,211
9,320
3,619

1,898
26,215
18,337
9,930
3,856

1,983
27,929
19,536
10,579
4,108

57,293
52,364
21,702
8,427

61,040
55,859
23,121
8,978

65,032
59,582
24,633
9,565

69,285
63,548
26,244
10,191

73,816
67,775
27,961
10,857

78,644
72,277
29,789
11,567

83,787
77,074
31,738
12,324

Ao 16

220,412
154,177
83,490
32,419

22041
15418
8349
3242

Ao 17

234,827
164,261
88,950
34,539

23483
16426
8895
3454

Ao 18

250,185
175,003
94,767
36,798

25019
17500
9477
3680

Ao 19

266,547
186,448
100,965
39,205

26655
18645
10096
3920

Ao 20

283,979
198,642
107,568
41,769

28398
19864
10757
4177

119,023
83,256
45,084
17,506

126,807
88,701
48,033
18,651

135,100
94,502
51,174
19,871

143,935
100,682
54,521
21,171

153,349
107,267
58,087
22,555

2,073
29,756
20,814
11,271
4,377

2,166
31,702
22,175
12,008
4,663

2,263
33,775
23,625
12,794
4,968

2,365
35,984
25,171
13,630
5,293

2,472
38,337
26,817
14,522
5,639

Ingresos Brutos Totales

$1,794,474,168,683
$1,255,225,617,993
$679,725,063,895
$263,937,242,310

Ingresos Netos Totales

89,267
82,185
33,813
13,130

95,105
87,630
36,025
13,988

101,325
93,431
38,381
14,903

107,952
99,611
40,891
15,878

115,012
106,196
43,565
16,916

$1,345,855,626,512
$1,218,781,510,833
$509,793,797,921
$197,952,931,733

No. AOS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

No. AOS

RECAUDO 100%
12,534,656,611.00
13,354,122,322.00
14,227,161,423.00
15,157,276,328.00
16,148,198,425.00
17,203,903,045.00
18,328,625,411.00
19,526,877,626.00
20,803,466,777.00
22,163,514,222.00
23,612,476,127.00
25,156,165,367.00
26,800,774,834.00
28,552,902,289.00
30,419,576,829.00
32,408,287,084.00
34,527,011,260.00
36,784,249,148.00
39,189,056,221.00
41,751,079,960.00

RECAUDO CON
DESCUENTO 50%

% INCREMENTO
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%
6.54%

% INCREMENTO

SIMIT 10%
1,253,465,661.10
1,335,412,232.20
1,422,716,142.30
1,515,727,632.80
1,614,819,842.50
1,720,390,304.50
1,832,862,541.10
1,952,687,762.60
2,080,346,677.70
2,216,351,422.20
2,361,247,612.70
2,515,616,536.70
2,680,077,483.40
2,855,290,228.90
3,041,957,682.90
3,240,828,708.40
3,452,701,126.00
3,678,424,914.80
3,918,905,622.10
4,175,107,996.00

CIA 25%

Subtotal
11,281,190,949.90
12,018,710,089.80
12,804,445,280.70
13,641,548,695.20
14,533,378,582.50
15,483,512,740.50
16,495,762,869.90
17,574,189,863.40
18,723,120,099.30
19,947,162,799.80
21,251,228,514.30
22,640,548,830.30
24,120,697,350.60
25,697,612,060.10
27,377,619,146.10
29,167,458,375.60
31,074,310,134.00
33,105,824,233.20
35,270,150,598.90
37,575,971,964.00

SIMIT 10%

6,267,328,306.00

6.54%

1,566,832,076.50

626,732,830.60

6,677,061,161.00

6.54%

1,669,265,290.25

667,706,116.10

7,113,580,711.00

6.54%

1,778,395,177.75

711,358,071.10

7,578,638,164.00

6.54%

1,894,659,541.00

757,863,816.40

8,074,099,213.00

6.54%

2,018,524,803.25

807,409,921.30

8,601,951,523.00

6.54%

2,150,487,880.75

860,195,152.30

9,164,312,705.00

6.54%

2,291,078,176.25

916,431,270.50

9,763,438,813.00

6.54%

2,440,859,703.25

976,343,881.30

10,401,733,389.00

6.54%

2,600,433,347.25

1,040,173,338.90

10

11,081,757,111.00

6.54%

2,770,439,277.75

1,108,175,711.10

11

11,806,238,054.00

6.54%

2,951,559,513.50

1,180,623,805.40

12

12,578,082,583.00

6.54%

3,144,520,645.75

1,257,808,258.30

13

13,400,387,417.00

6.54%

3,350,096,854.25

1,340,038,741.70

14

14,276,451,145.00

6.54%

3,569,112,786.25

1,427,645,114.50

15

15,209,788,415.00

6.54%

3,802,447,103.75

1,520,978,841.50

16

16,204,143,542.00

6.54%

4,051,035,885.50

1,620,414,354.20

17

17,263,505,630.00

6.54%

4,315,876,407.50

1,726,350,563.00

18

18,392,124,574.00

1.10%

4,598,031,143.50

1,839,212,457.40

19

18,594,527,110.00

12.27%

4,648,631,777.50

1,859,452,711.00

20

20,875,539,980.00

5,218,884,995.00

2,087,553,998.00

MUNICIPIO 40%
4,512,476,379.96
4,807,484,035.92
5,121,778,112.28
5,456,619,478.08
5,813,351,433.00
6,193,405,096.20
6,598,305,147.96
7,029,675,945.36
7,489,248,039.72
7,978,865,119.92
8,500,491,405.72
9,056,219,532.12
9,648,278,940.24
10,279,044,824.04
10,951,047,658.44
11,666,983,350.24
12,429,724,053.60
13,242,329,693.28
14,108,060,239.56
15,030,388,785.60

CONCESION 60%
6,768,714,569.94
7,211,226,053.88
7,682,667,168.42
8,184,929,217.12
8,720,027,149.50
9,290,107,644.30
9,897,457,721.94
10,544,513,918.04
11,233,872,059.58
11,968,297,679.88
12,750,737,108.58
13,584,329,298.18
14,472,418,410.36
15,418,567,236.06
16,426,571,487.66
17,500,475,025.36
18,644,586,080.40
19,863,494,539.92
21,162,090,359.34
22,545,583,178.40

Calculo Base Ao 1 - Transito Mpal

Valor Promedio Multa
294,800
Multas al ao
42,519
Multas Diarias

subtotal

MUNICIPIO 40%

CONCESION 60%

4,073,763,398.90

1,629,505,359.56

2,444,258,039.34

4,340,089,754.65

1,736,035,901.86

2,604,053,852.79

4,623,827,462.15

1,849,530,984.86

2,774,296,477.29

4,926,114,806.60

1,970,445,922.64

2,955,668,883.96

5,248,164,488.45

2,099,265,795.38

3,148,898,693.07

5,591,268,489.95

2,236,507,395.98

3,354,761,093.97

5,956,803,258.25

2,382,721,303.30

3,574,081,954.95

6,346,235,228.45

2,538,494,091.38

3,807,741,137.07

6,761,126,702.85

2,704,450,681.14

4,056,676,021.71

7,203,142,122.15

2,881,256,848.86

4,321,885,273.29

7,674,054,735.10

3,069,621,894.04

4,604,432,841.06

8,175,753,678.95

3,270,301,471.58

4,905,452,207.37

8,710,251,821.05

3,484,100,728.42

5,226,151,092.63

9,279,693,244.25

3,711,877,297.70

5,567,815,946.55

9,886,362,469.75

3,954,544,987.90

5,931,817,481.85

10,532,693,302.30

4,213,077,320.92

6,319,615,981.38

116.4909259214510

11,221,278,659.50

4,488,511,463.80

6,732,767,195.70

11,954,880,973.10

4,781,952,389.24

7,172,928,583.86

12,086,442,621.50

4,834,577,048.60

7,251,865,572.90

13,569,100,987.00

5,427,640,394.80

8,141,460,592.20