Colosio Personalidad

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DEPARTMENT FOR ARA/MEX E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, PINR, MX SUBJECT: THE MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION -- THE CANDIDATES REF: 1. A) MEXICO 6501 B) MEXICO 7794
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. SUMMARY: THE SIX INDIVIDUALS WHO APPEAR TO BE IN THE RUNNING TO BE THE CANDIDATE OF THE RULING INSTITUTIONAL REVOLUTIONARY PARTY (PRI) FOR PRESIDENT OF MEXICO ARE SECRETARY OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT LUIS DONALDO COLOSIO; CONFIDENTIAL
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MEXICO CITY MAYOR MANUEL CAMACHO SOLIS; FINANCE MINISTER PEDRO ASPE; SECRETARY OF MINES, ENERGY, AND PARASTATAL INDUSTRY EMILIO LOZOYA THALMANN; EDUCATION SECRETARY ERNESTO ZEDILLO PONCE DE LEON; AND SECRETARY OF COMMUNICATIONS AND TRANSPORT EMILIO GAMBOA PATRON. 3. THE LEADING CANDIDATES APPEAR TO BE COLOSIO, CAMACHO, ASPE, AND LOZOYA. LOCAL PUNDITS THINK COLOSIO IS IN FIRST PLACE ... FOR NOW. OF ALL THE CANDIDATES, HE HAS THE BROADEST EXPERIENCE. THOUGH ASPE LACKS BROAD EXPERIENCE (OUTSIDE THE PURELY ECONOMIC SPHERE), HE HAS BEEN THE MOST
REVIEW AUTHORITY: Adolph Eisner, Senior Reviewer
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UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2009-06108 Doc No. C17580270 Date: 11/30/2012
SPECTACULARLY SUCCESSFUL WITHIN HIS FIELD. ZEDILLO WHO HAS FACED WOES AS EDUCATION SECRETARY, AND GAMBOA ARE CONSIDERED "FILLERS" TO ROUND OUT THE FIELD AND LESS LIKELY TO GET THE NOMINATION.
4. THE LEADING CANDIDATES SHARE SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS. THEIR AGES RANGE BETWEEN 41 AND 46. THEY ALMOST ALL RECEIVED ADVANCED DEGREES IN THE UNITED STATES AND THEY ARE ALL PERSONALLY CLOSE TO SALINAS, MOST OF THEM HAVING SERVED WITH HIM WHEN HE WAS DIRECTOR OF THE PRI'S INSTITUTE OF POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL STUDIES (IEPES) IN THE EARLY 1980'S. END SUMMARY LUIS DONALDO COLOSIO
5. 43 YEAR-OLD LUIS DONALDO COLOSIO IS WIDELY PERCEIVED AS THE STRONGEST CANDIDATE. HE HAS A DOCTORATE IN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND URBAN ECONOMICS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA. AS SECRETARY OF SOCIAL CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 MEXICO 08713 01 OF 06 161621Z DEVELOPMENT HE MANAGES SOLIDARITY, PRESIDENT SALINAS' PET SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT. HE IS PERSONALLY VERY CLOSE TO SALINAS. 6. COLOSIO HAS BEEN WITH SALINAS SINCE THE EARLY 19801S, WHEN THE TWO OF THEM WERE AT IEPES. COLOSIO WORKED FOR SALINAS AT THE FORMER SECRETARIAT OF PROGRAMMING AND BUDGET (SPP) 1982-1985 AND COORDINATED CANDIDATE SALINAS' PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. HE WAS SENATOR FROM SINALOA (HE IS THE ONLY ONE OF THE "PRESIDENCIABLES" TO HAVE WON ELECTIVE OFFICE), AS WELL AS PRESIDENT OF THE PRI, FROM 1988 UNTIL MAY 1992, WHEN HE BECAME SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT.SECRETARY. HE TRAVELS FREQUENTLY AROUND THE COUNTRY AND HIS NAME RECOGNITION, AT 36 PERCENT, IS THIRD AMONG THE POTENTIAL CANDIDATES. 7. COLOSIO'S MINISTRY IS ONE OF TWO "SUPERMINISTRIES" IN THE SALINAS CABINET (THE OTHER IS HACIENDA, UNDER PEDRO ASPE). IT WAS FORMED BY MERGING THE FORMER SECRETARIAT OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND THE ENVIRONMENT (SEDUE) WITH PRONASOL, THE NATIONAL SOLIDARITY PROGRAM. AS HEAD OF SEDESOL, COLOSIO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A BUDGET THAT AMOUNTS TO 9.5 PERCENT OF GNP. COLOSIO HAS USED HIS POSITION TO BECOME INVOLVED IN A LARGE NUMBER OF PROJECTS THROUGHOUT
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MEXICO, SPREADING POLITICAL PORK AROUND IN A MANNER THAT ENHANCES HIS NAME RECOGNITION AND CAUSES A LARGE NUMBER OF POLITICIANS TO BE IN HIS DEBT. AS PRESIDENT OF THE PRI, COLOSIO BEGAN THE PROCESS OF 8. REFORMING AND RESTRUCTURING THE PARTY. UNDER HIS LEADERSHIP THE RULING PARTY RECOVERED FROM THE DISLOCATION CONFIDENTIAL
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OF THE 1988 ELECTION AND, WHEN HE LEFT, SALINAS GAVE HIM AN EXTREMELY WARM PUBLIC ENDORSEMENT. HE IS THE CANDIDATE MOST CONGENIAL TO THE PRI AND MOST LIKELY TO KEEP THE PARTY UNITED. 'RECOGNIZED AS A REFORMER, HE IS ALSO ACCEPTABLE TO MOST TRADITIONAL PRI ISLAS. 9. COLOSIO HAS ESTABLISHED A GROUP OF PARTY AND
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 06 MEXICO 08713
DEPARTMENT FOR ARA/MEX E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, PINR, MX THE MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION -- THE SUBJECT: CANDIDATES GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS THROUGHOUT MEXICO WHO ARE LOYAL TO HIM, INCLUDING A DISPROPORTIONATE NUMBER OF GOVERNORS AND HIS CAMP INCLUDES FORMER FINANCE FEDERAL DEPUTIES. MINISTER AND AMBASSADOR TO WASHINGTON GUSTAVO PETRICIOLLI. IN BUILDING UP A FOLLOWING, OF ALL THE CANDIDATES, ONLY MANUEL CAMACHO SOLIS COMES CLOSE TO COLOSIO. CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 MEXICO 08713 02 OF 06 161626Z 10. COLOSIO WAS PROMINENTLY THE ONLY "PRESIDENCIABLE" TO I ACCOMPANY SALINAS ON HIS FIRST MEETING WITH U.S. PRESIDENT-ELECT CLINTON IN EARLY JANUARY. IN ENHANCING HIS CREDENTIALS FOR THE PRESIDENCY HE HAS BEEN CAREFUL, HOWEVER, NOT TO SHINE TOO MUCH NOR TO TRUMPET HIMSELF AS A CANDIDATE. 11. ON THE OTHER HAN
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CCOLOSIO IS APPARENTLY UNIMPRESSIVE AT CABINET MEETINGS, NOT ASSERTING HIMSELF AND NOT EVINCING MUCH PERSONALITY.
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FURTHERMORE, COLOSIO IS CURRENTLY THE NUMBER ONE TARGET FOR THE OTHER PRESIDENCIABLES, WHO WILL PROBABLY DO THEIR UTMOST TO TRIP HIM UP BEHIND THE SCENES; BEING THE FRONT-RUNNER TOO EARLY IN THE GAME CAN BE A DISADVANTAGE. MANUEL CAMACHO SOLIS
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12. THE 46 YEAR-OLD MAYOR OF MEXICO CITY, MANUEL CAMACHO SOLIS, EARNED A MASTER'S DEGREE IN PUBLIC POLICY FROM PRINCETON UNIVERSITY. HE IS A CHARTER MEMBER OF THE SALINAS INNER CIRCLE, HAVING ATTENDED UNIVERSITY WITH CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 MEXICO Q8713 02 OF 06 161626Z SALINAS IN THE 19701S AND SERVED UNDER HIM AT IEPES IN THE EARLY 1980'S. HE WAS UNDERSECRETARY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AT SPP UNDER SALINAS 1982-1986 AND THEN SECRETARY OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND ECOLOGY (SEDUE) 1986-1988. HE SERVED AS SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE PRI FROM AUGUST 1988 UNTIL DECEMBER OF THAT YEAR, WHEN HE BECAME THE UNELECTED HEAD OF MEXICO CITY. CAMACHO IS CONSIDERED ONE OF SALINAS' CLOSEST POLITICAL ADVISORS AND THE SOURCE OF MANY OF THE PRESIDENT'S NOTIONS ABOUT POLITICAL REFORM. SOME ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT, IF SALINAS DECIDED TO CHARGE HIS SUCCESSOR WITH THE TASK OF EFFECTING SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL REFORM IN MEXICO, CAMACHO WOULD BE HIS CHOICE. 13. CAMACHO HAS EARNED MIXED REVIEWS AS MANAGER OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CITY. HIS TENURE HAS PASSED WITHOUT A MAJOR BREAKDOWN IN CIVIL ORDER AND SECURITY, HE MANAGED THE EXTENSION OF THE METRO SYSTEM, HE IMPLEMENTED THE DAY-WITHOUT-A-CAR PROGRAM (TO REDUCE POLLUTION), AND HE IS CREDITED WITH THE PRI'S POLITICAL RECOVERY DURING THE 1991 MID-TERM ELECTIONS. A LITTLE-KNOWN BUT POSSIBLY KEY 1 FACTOR IN HIS FAVOR IS THAT HE HAS RESTORED THE FINANCIAL SOLVENCY OF MEXICO CITY THROUGH SAVVY MANAGEMENT AND RETRENCHMENT. UNDER HIM, MEXICO CITY HAS BECOME LARGELY INDEPENDENT OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES. THIS ACCOMPLISHMENT, WHICH IS AT VARIANCE WITH CAMACHO'S IMAGE AS A POPULIST, WOULD SUGGEST TO SALINAS THAT A PRESIDENT CAMACHO WOULD MAINTAIN A BALANCED BUDGET. 14. CAMACHO, TOGETHER WITH COLOSIO, HAS THE LARGEST GROUPING OF FOLLOWERS AND SUPPORTERS, THOUGH THEY TEND TO CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 MEXICO 08713 02 OF 06 161626Z BE CONCENTRATED IN MEXICO CITY (COLOSIO HAS MORE OF A NATIONAL FOLLOWING). CAMACHO'S SUPPORTERS INCLUDE
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FERNANDO ORTIZ ARANA (FORMER HEAD OF THE PRI IN THE CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES AND, AS OF MARCH 30, THE NEW PRESIDENT OF THE PRI), TEACHER'S UNION HEAD ELBA ESTHER GORDILLO, FESEBES UNION HEAD FRANCISCO HERNANDEZ JUAREZ, AND
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DEPARTMENT FOR ARA/MEX E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, PINR, MX SUBJECT: THE MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION -- THE CANDIDATES JUST-DEPARTED UNDERSECRETARY OF GOBERNACION BEATRIZ PAREDES (NOW AMBASSADOR TO CUBA). CAMACHO HAS, AT 44 PERCENT, THE HIGHEST NAME RECOGNITION OF ANY CANDIDATE. FURTHERMORE, HE HAS DEMONSTRATED GOOD POPULIST CAMPAIGN SKILLS DURING HIS LEADERSHIP OF MEXICO CITY.
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15. HIS DISADVANTAGES INCLUDE THE FACT THAT MEXICO CITY'S POLLUTION CONTINUES TO MAIN PROBLEMS ARE BECOMING WORSE. CONFIDENTIAL,
CONFIDENTIAL 08713 03 OF 06 PAGE 02 MEXICO 161623Z CLIMB, THE INCIDENCE OF PROTESTS AND MARCHES IS RISING MEASURABLY, AND PUBLIC SERVICES REMAIN INADEQUATE. CAMACHO'S PERFORMANCE AS A BEHIND-THE-SCENES POLITICAL NEGOTIATOR FOR SALINAS HAS, ON BALANCE, ALSO BEEN A DISADVANTAGE. THOUGH HE HAS SUCCESSFULLY NEGOTIATED SOLUTIONS TO STUDENT PROTESTS AND PETROLEUM WORKER SIT-INS, HIS POPULIST STANCE AND PROPENSITY FOR CONCILIATION HAS LED HIM TO BE IDENTIFIED WITH CAVING IN TO THE OPPOSITION. HE SOUGHT TO MEDIATE ELECTORAL DISPUTES IN GUANAJUATO, SAN LUIS POTOSI, AND MICHOACAN, ALL OF WHICH ENDED DISASTROUSLY FOR THE PRI AND FOR SALINAS' CREDIBILITY WITH HIS PARTY. BECAUSE OF THIS RECORD, THE PRI, AND ESPECIALLY THE STATE PRI STRUCTURES, DISLIKE CAMACHO. 16. CAMACHO HAS LONG WANTED TO BE SECRETARY OF GOBERNACION, BUT, SIGNIFICANTLY, SALINAS DECIDED NOT TO ENTRUST HIM WITH THIS KEY AGENCY WHEN IT BECAME VACANT IN JANUARY. IDENTIFIED WITH THE POLICY OF CONCILIATING THE OPPOSITION, A POLICY RECENTLY DISCLAIMED BY SALINAS. GOVERNORS AND GOVERNMENT INSIDERS HAVE TOLD US THAT CAMACHO.IS VIEWED AS HAVING SUFFERED CONSIDERABLE POLITICAL EROSION IN CONSEQUENCE. PEDRO ASPE
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17. MANY PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT THE 43 YEAR OLD MINISTER OF FINANCE, PEDRO ASPE, IS THE MAN TO BEAT FOR THE CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 MEXICO 08713 03 OF 06 161623Z NOMINATION. HE HAS A BRILLIANT INTELLECT, WITH A DOCTORATE IN ECONOMICS FROM MIT IN 1978. HIS BACKGROUND IS IN STATISTICS, MATH, AND FINANCE; HE IS A FORMER PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS. HE DIRECTED THE MEXICAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE 1982-1985, WAS UNDERSECRETARY AT SPP
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UNDER SALINAS 1985-1987, AND SUCCEEDED SALINAS AS SECRETARY WHEN SALINAS LEFT TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT. HE DOMINATES CABINET MEETINGS IN WHICH ECONOMIC ISSUES ARE DISCUSSED. 18. THE LAST THREE PRESIDENTS OF MEXICO WERE ALL BUDGETMEISTERS (LOPEZ PORTILLO WAS FINANCE MINISTER, AND BOTH MIGUEL DE LA MADRID AND CARLOS SALINAS VAULTED TO THE PRESIDENCY FROM SPP) AND A PRESIDENT ASPE WOULD CONTINUE THIS TRADITION. ASPE HAS A LONG STRING OF SUCCESSES TO HIS CREDIT. HE SUCCESSFULLY BROUGHT DOWN INFLATION FROM OVER 50 PERCENT PER YEAR IN 1988 TO POSSIBLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THIS YEAR. HE RENEGOTIATED MEXICO'S FOREIGN DEBT, HIS FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE HAS PUT THE GOVERNMENT'S BOOKS IN BALANCE, HE OVERSAW THE EXTRAORDINARILY SUCCESSFUL (FROM THE GOVERNMENT'S PERSPECTIVE) PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM, AND IMPLEMENTED REMARKABLE IMPROVEMENTS IN FINANCIAL ADMINISTRATION,-CUSTOMS MANAGEMENT, AND TAX POLICY. IF ASPE WERE TO BECOME PRESIDENT, SALINAS WOULD BE CERTAIN THAT HIS ECONOMIC REFORMS WOULD BE CONSOLIDATED AND ENHANCED. 19. AFTER SALINAS, ASPE'S NAME IS THE MOST RESPECTED AND WELL-KNOWN OUTSIDE OF MEXICO, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL COMMUNITY. WITHIN MEXICO HIS NAME RECOGNITION, AT 39 PERCENT, IS SECOND ONLY TO CAMACHO'S. CONFIDENTIAL
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MAKING HIM PRESIDENT WOULD REASSURE MEXICO'S CREDITORS AND PROBABLY IMPROVE THE COUNTRY'S CREDIT RATING OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID, ALL THAT COULD BE ACCOMPLISHED INTERNATIONALLY BY A PRESIDENT ASPE COULD ALSO BE REALIZED IF ASPE CONTINUED AS FINANCE MINISTER FOR TWELVE YEARS (THE PRECEDENT FOR THIS IS ANTONIO ORTIZ MENA, WHOSE STATURE
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DEPARTMENT FOR ARA/MEX E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, PINR, MX SUBJECT: THE MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION -- THE CANDIDATES WAS SUCH THAT HE WAS FINANCE MINISTER UNDER THREE PRESIDENTS). IF ASPE DOES NOT GET THE PRESIDENCY, WE THINK IT HIGHLY LIKELY THAT SALINAS WILL ARRANGE FOR HIM TO CONTINUE IN HIS PRESENT JOB. 20. ASPE IS ONE OF THE STRONGEST HOPEFULS. AGRICULTURE SECRETARY CARLOS HANK GONZALEZ, WHO RARELY MAKES AN ERROR OF POLITICAL PROGNOSTICATION, HAS COURTED AND SUPPORTED CONFIDENTIAL
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ASPE MORE THAN ANY OTHER CABINET MEMBER. ANOTHER POSSIBLE INDICATOR OF HIS STRENGTH IS THAT PRESIDENT SALINAS, WHEN ASKED BY THE HEAD OF THE PRESIDENTIAL STAFF IN JANUARY IF HE WAS SATISFIED WITH SECURITY MEASURES, ANSWERED: "EVERYTHING IS FINE, I JUST WANT YOU TO PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE SECURITY OF PEDRO ASPE, AS HE IS IMPORTANT FOR THE FUTURE."
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ON THE OTHER HAND, ASPE HAS A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF 21. HE HAS ALIENATED BOTH THE WEALTHY AND THE LIABILITIES. MANY BUSINESSMEN HAVE FELT TERRORIZED BY POOR OF MEXICO. MANY THE ZEALOUS INVESTIGATIONS OF TREASURY AUDITORS. POOR CAMPESINOS WITH IRREGULARLY IMPORTED VEHICLES SUFFERED WHEN ASPE CRACKED DOWN IN THIS AREA IN 1991. ASPE IS FURTHER HANDICAPPED BY HIS PATRICIAN MANNER. 22. THOUGH HE CAN BE SIMPLE AND CHARMING, THERE IS A WIDESPREAD PERCEPTION THAT HIS BRILLIANCE VERGES ON THE HE HAS ARROGANT AND THAT HE LACKS THE COMMON TOUCH. ANNOYED MANY OF HIS COLLEAGUES BY HIS PROFESSORIAL MANNER HIS PUBLIC -- SOME WOULD SAY HE LECTURES THE CABINET. SPEAKING STYLE HAS BEEN CALLED SOPORIFIC, AND SOMETIMES HE HAS STRETCHED THE LIMITS OF CREDIBILITY, AS IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR WHEN HE DECLARED THAT THE LOSS OF REAL WAGES AND THAT SAID, ALLEGED UNEMPLOYMENT IN MEXICO WERE MYTHS. ASPE CONTINUES TO WIN EVERY POLICY DEBATE IN WHICH HE ENGAGES, WHICH SPEAKS VOLUMES FOR THE RESPECT HE HAS BOTH WITH SALINAS AND THE REST OF THE CABINET
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23. WITHIN HIS FIELD ASPE IS UNBEATABLE, BUT HIS HORIZONS ASPE IS NOT KNOWN ARE LIMITED TO FINANCE AND THE ECONOMY. AS A AS A POLITICIAN NOR AS AN ADROIT POLITICAL MANAGER. CANDIDATE HE WOULD NOT SPARKLE (UNLESS HE HAS BEEN HOLDING FURTHERMORE, HIMSELF UNDER WRAPS, AS SOME SOURCES THINK). THE PRI DOES NOT LIKE HIM AT ALL (HE OFFICIALLY JOINED THE PRI IN 1980 AND HAS ONLY HELD THE POSITION OF "ADVISOR" TO IN 1982). AN ASPE THE HEAD OF IEPES -- SALINAS -CANDIDACY WOULD NOT SIT WELL WITH MANY TRADITIONAL PRIISTAS, AND THE CONTRAST BETWEEN OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL CUAUHTEMOC CARDENAS, THE POPULIST, AND ASPE, THE PATRICIAN, COULD WELL END IN THE KIND OF RICH VERSUS POOR CAMPAIGN THAT SALINAS IS ANXIOUS TO AVOID. EMILIO LOZOYA THALMANN
24. 45 YEAR OLD EMILIO LOZOYA THALMANN WAS NAMED SECRETARY OF MINES, ENERGY, AND PARASTATAL INDUSTRY UNTIL THEN, HE HAD BEEN (SEMIP) IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR.
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DIRECTOR OF THE SOCIAL SECURITY INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC EMPLOYEES (ISSTE). HIS BACKGROUND INCLUDES A STINT AS UNDER-SECRETARY OF LABOR UNDER FORMER PRESIDENT DE LA MADRID. LOZOYA IS A FOUNDING MEMBER OF SALINAS' "HAPPY 25. FAMILY" AND IS, WITH GAMBOA, ONE OF THE TWO CLOSEST PERSONAL FRIENDS OF THE PRESIDENT. THE TWO KNEW EACH OTHER IN PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOL, STUDIED AT HARVARD TOGETHER IN THE 1970'S, AND WERE AT IEPES TOGETHER IN THE CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL 08713 04 OF 06 PAGE 04 MEXICO 1616242 EARLY 80'S. THE TRUST AND CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS POSSIBLY THE BEST OF ANY CABINET OFFICIAL WITH THE PRESIDENT. LOZOYA HAS A REPUTATION FOR PERSONAL DISCIPLINE AND HONESTY. 26. IN NAMING HIM THE HEAD OF SEMIP, SALINAS CATAPULTED
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DEPARTMENT FOR ARA/MEX E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, PINR, MX SUBJECT: THE MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION -- THE CANDIDATES LOZOYA TO THE RANKS OF THE HOPEFULS, SET HIM A TASK TO TEST HIS BUREAUCRATIC SKILLS, AND POSSIBLY PUT HIM IN A POSITION WERE HE WOULD DEVELOP THE EXPERIENCE TO FINISH AND CONSOLIDATE SALINAS' PLAN FOR ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING AND PRIVATIZATION. LOZOYA'S ASSIGNED TASK IS TO RESTRUCTURE THE ENERGY SECTOR, INCLUDING PEMEX AND THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY COMMISSION (CFE). BOTH OF THESE AGENCIES OPERATE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF AUTONOMY AND, IF HE CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 MEXICO 08713 05 OF 06 161624E CAN BRING THEM TO HEEL, LOZOYA WILL PROVE HIMSELF AS AN ADMINISTRATOR. PEMEX AND THE CFE ARE AMONG THE LAST OF' THE SACRED COWS OF THE MEXICAN REVOLUTION; THE EVENTUAL PRIVATIZATION OF CFE AND PARTS OF PEMEX UNDER A LOZOYA ADMINISTRATION COULD BE ONE OF SALINAS' INTENTIONS. 27. LOZOYA'S PROFILE FITS SALINAS' PERCEPTION THAT THE NEXT PRESIDENT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOCIAL AND LABOR ISSUES. FURTHERMORE, LIKE LOPEZ PORTILLO AND MIGUEL DE LA MADRID BEFORE HIM, LOZOYA ENTERED THE CABINET TWO YEARS BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HE WOULD CERTAINLY REMAIN SALINAS' FRIEND AND CONFIDANT IF HE BECAME PRESIDENT, AND HE COULD BE COUNTED ON TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY OF ECONOMIC POLICY. WE CONSIDER HIM A STRONG (THOUGH QUIET) CANDIDATE. 28. LOZOYA'S DISADVANTAGES INCLUDE THE FACT THAT HE IS NOT WELL KNOWN, WITH ONLY 21 PERCENT NAME RECOGNITION THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY, AND THAT HE LACKS BOTH POLITICAL EXPERIENCE AND A POLITICAL BASE OF HIS OWN. HIS NOMINATION WOULD BE A SURPRISE TO THE PRI, WITH WHICH HE HAS HAD VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATION (HE WAS COORDINATOR OF IEPES 1987-1988). HE HAS NEVER RUN FOR OFFICE OR BEEN IN A POSITION TO MINGLE WITH THE PEOPLE; HIS QUALITIES AS A
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CAMPAIGNER ARE UNKNOWN. ERNESTO ZEDILLO PONCE DE LEON
29. WHILE WE CONSIDER EMILIO LOZOYA THALMAN TO BE A "SLEEPER" -- AN UNKNOWN HORSE WITH GOOD LEGS WHO COULD BE CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 MEXICO 08713 05 OF 06 1616242 FIRST ACROSS THE FINISH LINE -- BOTH ERNESTO ZEDILLO AND EMILIO GAMBOA ARE TRUE LONGSHOTS. THOUGH THEY BOTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF GOING ALL THE WAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT SALINAS IS USING THEM TO BROADEN THE OPTIONS AND CONFOUND THE PUNDITS. 30. LAST SUMMER ZEDILLO, THE 41 YEAR-OLD SECRETARY OF EDUCATION (SEP), WAS CONSIDERED A LEADING HOPEFUL FOR THE PRESIDENCY. HAVING HELD SALINAS' OLD JOB (SECRETARY AT SPP) FROM 1988-1992, THE VIEW WAS THAT, BY MAKING HIM SECRETARY OF EDUCATION IN 1992, THE PRESIDENT WANTED TO GIVE HIM THE EXPERIENCE OF A CHALLENGING POLITICAL POSITION. AS HEAD OF SEP, HIS TASK WAS TO RESTRUCTURE EDUCATION AND MANAGE THE TEACHER'S UNION. SEP IS A HIGH-PROFILE POSITION AND A GOOD SPOT FROM WHICH TO BUILD A POLITICAL BASE. 31. ZEDILLO WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE PERFECT BACKRGOUND -A PH.D. IN ECONOMICS FROM YALE, WORKING WITH SALINAS AT IEPES, UNDER SALINAS AT SPP, AND THEN HEAD OF SPP WHEN SALINAS BECAME PRESIDENT AND ASPE MOVED TO HACIENDA (THE TREASURY). ZEDILLO ALSO DID HIS WORK IN A QUIET, LOYAL FASHION, HE WAS AND IS VIEWED AS CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENT
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32. UNFORTUNATELY, ZEDILLO SEEMS TO HAVE RUN INTO BARRIERS AS SECRETARY OF EDUCATION. HE CAME TO GRIEF OVER THE REWRITING OF MEXICO'S HISTORY SCHOOL BOOKS. THE CONFIDENTIAL
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MILITARY WAS ENRAGED THAT THE NEW SCHOOLBOOKS HELD THEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STUDENT MASSACRE AT TLATELOLCO IN 1968. MANY INTELLECTUALS PUBLICLY DESCRIBED THE REINTERPRETATION OF PAST MEXICAN HISTORY AS AN ACTION WORTHY OF A TOTALITARIAN STATE, CHARGING THAT VILLAINS WERE BEING TURNED INTO HEROES (PORFIRIO DIAZ) AND HEROES
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DEPARTMENT FOR ARA/MEX E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, PINR, MX SUBJECT: THE MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION -- THE CANDIDATES CAST ASIDE (THE "NINOS HEROES" WHO DIED DEFENDING MEXICO CITY'S CHAPULTEPEC CASTLE AGAINST U.S. INVADERS). 33. NEVERTHELESS, ZEDILLO REMAINS PERSONALLY CLOSE TO
UNCLASSIFIED
SALINAS, HE GIVES A GOOD SPEECH, AND ON A BETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CANDIDATE. ZEDILLO LACKS DEFINITION AND PROFILE THOUGH THE PRI WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE CONFIDENTIAL HE PROBABLY WOULD BE THE OTHER HAND, AS A POLITICIAN. ENTHUSED OVER HIM, HE
CONFIDENTIAL 08713 06 OF 06 161625Z PAGE 02 MEXICO CERTAINLY WOULD BE FAR MORE ACCEPTABLE TO THE TRADITIONAL MOREOVER, ZEDILLO MEXICAN POLITICAL ELITE THAN ASPE. SEEMS TO HAVE ENJOYED SOMETHING OF A POLITICAL RENAISSANCE FROM THE ASHES OF THE DEBACLE OF THE HISTORY BOOKS. HE RECENTLY DELIVERED A WELL-RECEIVED SPEECH TO THE MEXICAN MILITARY, WITH SALINAS PROMINENTLY PRESENT. EMILIO GAMBOA PATRON
34. EMILIO GAMBOA PATRON, 42 YEARS-OLD, WAS NAMED SECRETARY OF TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS (SCT) ON MARCH HE HAD BEEN DIRECTOR OF THE MEXICAN 29 OF THIS YEAR. SOCIAL SECURITY INSTITUTE (IMSS). HE DOES NOT SHARE MANY OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES. HE DOES NOT HAVE A U.S. EDUCATION (HIS DEGREE IS IN INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS FROM THE INTER-AMERICAN UNIVERSITY IN MEXICO CITY), NOR WAS HE A MEMBER OF SALINAS' INNER CIRCLE AT IEPES IN THE EARLY 80'S (THOUGH HE WAS A MEMBER OF THE IEPES CONSULTATIVE COMMISSION FROM 1983 TO 1990). 35. GAMBOA IS A PROTEGE OF FORMER PRESIDENT DE LA MADRID AND WAS HIS PRIVATE SECRETARY BOTH AT SPP AND THEN THROUGHOUT DE LA MADRID'S PRESIDENCY. IT WAS AS PRIVATE SECRETARY THAT PRESIDENTIAL GAMBOA BECAME A CLOSE HE IS CONSIDERED TO HAVE BEEN FRIEND OF SALINAS. INSTRUMENTAL IN SALINAS BECOMING THE PRI'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN 1987. WITH GAMBOA AS ALLY, SALINAS WAS ABLE TO ANTICIPATE AND WIN BUREAUCRATIC BATTLES AND TO HAVE INSTANT AND EASY ACCESS TO DE LA MADRID. CONFIDENTIAL
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36. SINCE THEN, GAMBOA HAS BECOME VERY CLOSE TO SALINAS. SOURCES IN THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY DESCRIBE HIM AS SALINAS' "CHUM" AND AS HIS CLOSEST CONFIDANT. HIS
UNCLASSIFIED
CLOSENESS TO THE PRESIDENT IS MATCHED BY HIS PERFORMANCE IN THE CABINET, WHERE HE HAS BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE. HAVING BEEN CHARGED BY SALINAS WITH REFORMING AND RESTRUCTURING THE MEXICAN HEALTH CARE SYSTEM, HIS PERIODIC REPORTS TO THE CABINET'ARE AMONG THE MOST LUCID, PERSUASIVE, AND WELL-PRESENTED OF ANY CABINET OFFICER, INCLUDING ASPE. 37. CLOSENESS TO THE PRESIDENT AND PERSONAL IMPRESSIVENESS NOTWITHSTANDING,-GAMBOA IS SEVERELY LIMITED HIS PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE IN BACKGROUND AND EXPERIENCE. HAS BEEN ALMOST WHOLLY IN THE SUBSIDIZED WORKER HOUSING AGENCY (INFONAVIT), OF WHICH HE WAS DIRECTOR FROM 1988-1991, AND TO THE IMSS (SOCIAL SECURITY). THOUGH HE WOULD NOT LACK FOR A POLITICAL FOLLOWING, AS HE COULD COUNT UPON FORMER PRESIDENT DE LA MADRID FOR SUPPORT, HIS POTENTIAL GROUP OF SUPPORTERS IS FAR SMALLER THAN EITHER COLOSIO OR CAMACHO. 38. AS A CANDIDATE, GAMBOA WOULD PROBABLY BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. HE HAS THE COMMON TOUCH, HE GIVES A GOOD SPEECH, AND HE HAS AN ATTRACTIVE PERSONALITY AND APPEARANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND, HE IS NOT A PRI INSIDER (THOUGH MORE ATTRACTIVE TO THE RULING PARTY THAN EITHER ASPE, LOZOYA, OR ZEDILLO). (DRAFTED MSCHWEITZER) NEGROPONTE ##
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UNCLrSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2009-06108 Doc No.

C17580270 Date: 11/3012012

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RELEASED IN PART B l, 1.4(D)

CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

REVIEW AUTHORITY: Adolph Eisner, Senior Reviewer

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